Fade These Big Week 1 Winners in College Football Week 2: Miami, Oklahoma Fade Targets

While some teams looked dominant in Week 1, it has opened up valuable betting opportunities in Week 2

LSU v Texas A&M
LSU v Texas A&M / Carmen Mandato/GettyImages

One week is in the books of college football and we can digest what we saw on the field, and use it to make smart wagers moving forward.

Certain teams looked sharp in Week 1, outperforming expectations and now have gotten a boost in the market, but is this one week change overstated, creating value on fading those teams? Oklahoma beat poor Arkansas State by 70 points, but should the Sooners be laying north of two touchdowns against SMU?

Meanwhile, in one of the marquee matchups of Week 2, a revamped Texas A&M offense travels to Miami, both off of big wins against inferior foes, but why did the line move through a touchdown?

Let me explain with a few early week bets for Week 2 after going 2-1 in this column targeting three overs in Week 1.

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College Football Week 2 Best Bets

  • Texas A&M -5.5 vs. Miami (Florida)
  • SMU +16.5 vs. Oklahoma

Texas A&M vs. Miami (Florida) Prediction and Pick

Miami made quick work of the worst version of the same name in Miami (Ohio), winning 38-3, but the real story is the visiting Texas A&M.

Both teams were hungry to shake off last season after not being bowl eligible but I'm higher on the Aggies, who hired Bobby Petrino to head up its revamped offense that had great returns in an admitted layup against New Mexico in College Station last weekend.

However, the process is clearly there with the Aggies, who have a talented former five star recruit in Conner Weigman, who helped boast a Texas A&M offense that had a 52% success rate (92nd percentile relative to all 2022 games), 0,57 EPA/Dropback (94th) and 13% explosive play rate (91st).

However, oddsmakers opened this line at -4.5, down from the lookahead of Texas A&M -7.5. While those numbers aren't the best barometer of an efficient market, it shows some renewed positive sentiment in Miami. However, I still favor the far more talented Aggies, who have a size advantage in the trenches on both sides and the skill position players to challenge the Hurricanes.

While Miami has talent in the secondary, namely All-American safety Karmen Kinches, this defense was a disaster last season, bottom 10 in explosive pass defense and allowed more than eight yards per pass. This wasn't tested against the RedHawks, but surely will against Texas A&M's stable of wide receivers that includes Evan Stewart, Ainas Smith and Moose Muhammad.

I'm not sure Miami deserves that big of a boost, while there is more room to the upside with this new look Aggies offense.

I'd lay it with the road team who has a negligible home field advantage.

PICK: Texas A&M -5.5

SMU vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick

Oklahoma had a lopsided score line in Week 1, destroying Arkansas State 73-0. Now, the team faces a legitimate opponent in SMU, who many (including oddsmakers) have pegged as the second best team in the AAC this season.

This is far too much respect for the Sooners, who faced arguably the worst team in the FBS this season, and now will face a Mustangs offense that can match the Sooners throughout the game behind the look of new starting quarterback Preston Stone.

Stone is the long awaited leader of the SMU offense, who waited behind now Wisconsin signal caller Tanner Mordecai, and showed his upside against Louisiana Tech in Week 1, posting a 0.27 EPA/Pass, 75th percentile when compared to all games in 20222.

Oklahoma went 3-5 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite of three or more last season as the team fell short of prior ratings from the Lincoln Riley era teams. While the team is sure to take a step forward in the second year of Brent Venables, I'm not trusting the team to slow down SMU's air-raid offense under also a second year coach in Rhett Lashlee with a talented quarterback.

I expect fireworks in this one, and while Oklahoma's defense may look improved in 2023 off a one-game sample size, I will pay to see it.

PICK: SMU +16.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!