Fade This Khris Middleton NBA Finals Player Prop in Game 5
By Peter Dewey
Khris Middleton delivered in a big way in Game 4 of the NBA Finals for the Milwaukee Bucks, as he posted 40 points on 15-of-33 shooting in 43 minutes.
Middleton’s performance was huge for Milwaukee as it evened the series and continued the trend of him showing up when things have mattered the most for the Bucks.
Khris Middleton always steps up when it matters.
— StatMuse (@statmuse) July 15, 2021
G6 vs BKN: 38 PTS, 10 REB, 5 AST
G7 vs BKN: 23 PTS, 10 REB, 6 AST
G5 vs ATL: 26 PTS, 13 REB, 8 AST
G6 vs ATL: 32 PTS, 4 REB, 7 AST
G4 vs PHX: 40 PTS, 6 REB, 4 AST pic.twitter.com/BcxDVccOqm
While that may be true, our Donnavan Smoot broke down Middleton’s performances following a breakout game this postseason, and let’s just say the results aren’t great.
Despite that, WynnBET has Middleton’s player prop for points set at 24.5 in Game 5 with the over (-125) as a major favorite to the under (+100). Those odds suggest that Middleton is due for another big game, but his splits say otherwise.
First off, Middleton is averaging 23.6 points per game this postseason, so it’s not out of the ordinary for him to hit the under on this prop. What’s even more concerning is how bad Middleton has been on the road in the postseason.
Normally, role players are the guys that show major differences in their stats at home versus on the road, but Middleton has found himself in that category this postseason.
Middleton at home (10 games): 25.0 points, 7.5 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 46.8% FG, 38.0% 3P FG
Middleton on the road (11 games): 22.4 points, 7.9 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 40.4% FG, 31.5% 3P FG
Yikes. Middleton’s shooting struggles on the road are significant, and the Bucks have actually been better in the minutes he’s been off the floor on the road this postseason. Middleton has a plus/minus of -24 on the road in the playoffs while he is a whopping +128 at home.
He’s essentially two different players based on the arena that the Bucks are playing in, and I’m going to fade him at +100 odds in Game 5. The Bucks will likely need someone else to step up alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo if they want to pull off the upset, but I don’t see Middleton’s road woes disappearing in the Finals.
Considering fading Middleton in Game 5?
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