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Falcons vs. Bills Updated Odds and Prediction: What Bettors Need to Know

By Matt De Saro

The Bills have to win their next two games to clinch the division. Luckily, they are hosting a struggling Falcons team this weekend.
The Bills have to win their next two games to clinch the division. Luckily, they are hosting a struggling Falcons team this weekend. / Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
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The Buffalo Bills are in complete control of their own postseason destiny heading into Week 17.

After a mighty stumble, the Bills have won two in a row and regained the AFC East lead at 9-6 on the season. While the Patriots own the same record, thanks to Week 16’s win, the Bills hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. All the Bills have to do is win out and the division title is theirs. 

The 7-8 Falcons are a great place for the Bills to get the first of two wins needed to clinch. Somehow, the Falcons remain mathematically in the playoff hunt but will need a fair bit of help to claw their way into a Wild Card spot. They won’t get much help from a surging Bills team that is averaging over 30 points per game in the last three weeks.

Here are the odds for this 17 showdown, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Falcons vs. Bills Updated Odds, Spread, and Total

Spread:

  • Falcons: +14.5 (-110) / Opened 13.5
  • Bills: -14.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Falcons: +650
  • Bills: -1000

Total:

  • 43.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Falcons vs. Bills Betting Trends

  • The Falcons are 2-5 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games.
  •  The UNDER is 6-1 in the Falcons’ last seven games. 
  • The Falcons are 4-1 straight up (SU) in their last five games against the Bills. 
  • The Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games. 
  • The OVER is 5-2 in the Bills’ last seven games. 
  • The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight games between these two teams. 
  • The Bills are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against the NFC. 

Falcons vs. Bills Prediction and Pick

Atlanta’s struggles extend past their spot in the NFC playoff standings. The Falcons enter Week 17 with a 6-9 ATS record and are failing to cover by an average of 5.4 per loss. Things are only getting worse too as Atlanta is just 1-3 ATS in their last four contests. This is a situation we see every season from NFL teams that have fallen out of contention and just kind of give up. 

On the other side of things, the Bills have rebounded nicely after some midseason hiccups and have brought their ATS record up to 8-6-1. They have covered both of their previous two games and are covering by an average of 3.6 points per win. 

While the Bills have already been shocked and upset this season, I don’t foresee that happening here. The Bills have too much to play for and just have to win to maintain a lead in the division. The Falcons just don't have the playmakers to get it done. They cannot continue to rely on Cordarelle Patterson to get it done on his own. Teams have adjusted to that tactic and Patterson has just 36 total yards in his last two games. The Lions held him to just 14 yards rushing and -1 yards in the passing game last week. 

I was unsure of how to view the Bills until last week’s big win over Bill Belichick and the Patriots defense. Outside of their loss to the Jaguars, the Bills have done well against inferior teams and are 7-1-1 ATS against teams with a losing record in their last nine chances. I think that trend continues and the Bills march towards a division crown. 

Pick: Buffalo Bills -14.5 (-110)

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