Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for NFL Week 5 (Atlanta Remains Perfect vs. Spread)

Oct 2, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons cornerback Dee Alford (37) reacts with teammates
Oct 2, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons cornerback Dee Alford (37) reacts with teammates / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Not many people would have expected it, but the Atlanta Falcons are tied atop the NFC South with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 2-2.

The two teams meet each other in Week 5, with the winner taking the sole position atop the division.

Tom Brady has owned the Falcons throughout his career, and he and the Bucs are sizable favorites to beat them once again.

Let's take a look at the odds for game, and then I'll break down my best bet.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, and Total

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Betting Trends

  • Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in last 7 games vs. Falcons
  • Falcons are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games
  • Falcons are 2-9 straight up in last 11 games vs NFC South opponents
  • The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these two teams
  • Buccaneers are 9-2 straight up in last 11 games against NFC South opponents
  • Buccaneers are 5-12 ATS in last 17 games played in October

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction and Pick

Despite the Buccaneers having a much better performance in Week 4, their offense still ranks 22nd in the NFL in yards per play. They're averaging fewer yards per play than the New York Giants, and only 0.1 more yards per play than the Houston Texans.

Then you have the Falcons, whose offense has been one of the most pleasant surprises of the season. They're 9th in yards per play at 5.9, and are sixth in yards per carry, averaging 5.1 yards per rush. They won't have one of their leading running backs for this week, however, as Cordarrelle Patterson was placed on Injured Reserve.

The Buccaneers should win this game, but with the spread set at a number higher than a touchdown, the Falcons are the play to make when it comes to the line.

It's also worth noting the Atlanta is the only team in the NFL that's perfect against the spread this season, covering in all four of its games. I'll back them to keep that streak alive in Week 5.