If the NFL regular season ended today, the Washington Commanders and Atlanta Falcons would be the last two teams out, sitting in the No. 8 and No. 9 seed in the NFC. The Falcons are also half a game back from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South.
The conditions make for a pivotal meeting between the two unlikely playoff contenders in Week 12.
Washington is coming off an easy win over the Texans, while the Falcons are riding high off a nail biter against the Bears.
Who will win on Sunday? Let's take a look at the odds and then I'll give you my best bet.
Falcons vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, and Total
Falcons vs. Commanders Betting Trends
- Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five games
- Falcons are 6-1 straight up in their last seven games against Commanders
- Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played in Washington
- Commanders are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games
- The UNDER is 7-2 in the Commanders' last nine games
- The UNDER is 8-2 in the Commanders' last 10 home games
Falcons vs. Commanders Prediction and Pick
The Falcons are a team with an average offense, ranking 16th in yards per play, but a poor defense, ranking 29th in opponent yards per play. The Commanders are the opposite, ranking 13th in opponent yards per play but 30th in offensive yards gained per play.
Washington's biggest strength, and a huge reason for their success, is their third down defense. They rank third in the NFL in opponent third down conversion rate, but that also happens to be a strength of the Falcons offense, which ranks 12th in third down conversion rate.
Over their last three games, Washington has run the ball on 56.94% of their players, which is the second highest mark in the NFL over that span. Sticking to the gameplan may cause issues against Atlanta, whose strength is stopping the run, ranking 11th in opponent yards per carry.
The way to attack the Falcons defense is by throwing the ball, but the Commanders are only 26th in yards per pass attempt.
There are plenty of data points you could look at that support either side, so in a toss up game like this, I'm more than willing to take the team that's getting more than a field goal worth of points.
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.