Farmers Insurance Open Picks and Betting Preview

Thankfully, my least favorite event to bet on of the PGA Tour season, The American Express, is behind us. My top three picks were never really in contention to win, and even my 2-ball bets I tweeted out were bad.

But that's okay, not every week is going to be a winning one. Now, we're on to the Farmers Insurance Open hosted at Torrey Pines. Patrick Reed won the event by five strokes last season, but he isn't the latest person to win at this course. Last year's US Open was also hosted at Torrey Pines, and Jon Rahm went on a back-nine surge to secure his first Major Championship.

Let's take a look at the Top 10 odds via WynnBET to win this year's edition of the Farmers Insurance Open.

Odds to Win The Farmers Insurance Open

• Jon Rahm +750
• Justin Thomas +1200
• Xander Schauffele +1600
• Bryson DeChambeau +1800
• Dustin Johnson +1800
• Hideki Matsuyama +2000
• Daniel Berger +2000
• Sam Burns +2500
• Sungjae Im +2800
• Tony Finau +2800

How to Handicap Torrey Pines

The Farmers Insurance Open does have one similarity to last week's The American Express, in that it's not played on only one course. This week's event, is played on two. Only one of the four rounds will be played on the North Course, the other three will be played on the South Course. With that in mind, we can mostly just focus on the South Course.

This is one of the few courses on the PGA Tour's schedule that heavily favors long drivers. You can scratch off a good chunk of the golfers competing this week because of that. If they can't hit it long, don't even bother wasting your money by betting on them this week. Patrick Reed winning last season was probably the only recent example of a non-bomber winning it, but every other part of his game was so dialed in that he was able to overcome his length off the tee.

Not only does being long off the tee help this week, but there will be very few short approaches. Being long with your irons is going to be key as well.

With that being said, driving distance isn't the only thing you should lack at. With how strong this week's field is, whoever wins will need to be dialed in with all facets of his game.

Key Stats to Handicap the Farmers Insurance Open

• Driving Distance
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Approach Proximity from 175-200 Yards
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting

Famers Insurance Open Picks to Win

Xander Schauffele +1600 (1 unit)

Ah yes, it's time to look at my favorite golfer to bet on. Xander Schauffele is a San Diego guy and he views Torrey Pines as his home course, but he historically struggled at this event. He finally changed the narrative with a T2 here last year, and then followed it up with a T7 at the US Open. It's only a matter of time before he gets a win at Torrey.

His biggest strength is his play with his long irons. Heading into this week, he ranks first on the Tour in proximity from 175-200 yards out, and that distance is extremely important at Torrey Pines. I'm ready for him to break my heart once again.

Bryson DeChambeau +1800 (1 unit)

If there's one course that Bryson DeChambeau can really use his power to run away from the field, it's Torrey Pines. This will be the first time he'll be competing at the Farmers Insurance Open since becoming the long drive king on Tour, but he had the US Open in his pocket at Torrey last year, before shooting +8 on the final nine holes and dropping all the way to T26.

If the rest of his game is dialed in, nobodies game fits Torrey Pines better than DeChambeau's.

Aaron Wise +8000 (0.5 unit)

Aaron Wise is going to slide in as my dark horse bet this week. He's quietly having a pretty solid 2022 campaign, ranking seventh in total strokes gained and securing two top 10 finished. My main concerns with him is that he hasn't competed here since 2019, and this is his first event since the Houston Open in November.

Regardless, he ranks in the top 50 in the majority of key stats I've laid out, so I think he's worth a sprinkle at 80/1 this week.

Iain is 10-21-2 (+8.5 units) with his golf bets in 2022, including outright picks and 3-ball bets. You can view is detailed record here.