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FGCU vs. Tennessee Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, November 16 (Take Vols to Cover Large Number at Home)

By Ben Heisler

Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi (25), Uros Plavsic (33), Julian Phillips (2), and Zakai Zeigler huddle up. The Vols are a 21-point favorite vs. FGCU.
Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi (25), Uros Plavsic (33), Julian Phillips (2), and Zakai Zeigler huddle up. The Vols are a 21-point favorite vs. FGCU. / Saul Young/News Sentinel / USA TODAY
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The No. 22 Tennessee Volunteers hope to shake off a neutral site double-digit loss vs. the Colorado Buffaloes their last time out when they return home to Rocky Top to face a Florida Gulf Coast Eagles squad with a power 5 win already on their resume.

The Eagles stunned former Florida Gulf Coast head coach Andy Enfield and the USC Trojans in their opening night matchup on November 7, beating them handedly in Southern California 74-61. Since then, they've lost on the road 79-73 to San Diego, and throttled Ave Maria 105-61.

The Vols destroyed Tennessee Tech by 30-plus points more than a week ago before their upset loss to Colorado, but oddsmakers expect Rick Barnes' club to win easily and cover a 20-point plus number.

Are the Vols the right side? Or are the Eagles being disrespected by oddsmakers?

Here are the latest odds for tonight's matchup:

Florida Gulf Coast vs. Tennessee Odds, Spread and Total

Florida Gulf Coast vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick

The loss to Colorado, especially by double digits was certainly out of character for Tennessee playing in Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. The Vols went ice cold in the second half, and their offense sputtering seemed to impact a very reliable defensive unit, allowing 46 points in the second half after only giving up 32 in the first 20 minutes.

Tennessee shot just 27% from 3-point range, as senior Santiago Vescovi really struggled offensively going 2-13, including 2-11 from downtown. Last season, he made over 40% of his 3-point shots, so there's a very good chance he bounces back tonight.

Stylistically, I don't see any real advantages for the Eagles. Tennessee is far superior in both KenPom adjusted offense and defense (24 to 195 on offense, 4 to 224 on defense), and due to their elite defense, the Eagles' slower paced offense (256 in average possession length) won't get out in transition to catch the Vols off-guard. More half-court offense leads to Tennessee being set more often, limiting open shots and creeping into the passing lanes with the top steal percentage in all of college basketball.

The line is already on the move towards the Volunteers, so I grabbed it while it was still available at -20.5. Don't be surprised if this continues to creep further away from FGCU as the day goes on.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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