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Final 2024 MLB Regression Report: Playoff Teams Litter Top 10, Yankees Lag

Yankees, Brewers, Astros, Braves and Royals in the bottom 10 on the final Regression Report.

By Marty Coleman

Sep 29, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17) celebrates his single during the eighth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
Sep 29, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17) celebrates his single during the eighth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
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The regular season has finally come to an end and the postseason starts today after a riveting game one of the Mets-Braves doubleheader yesterday.

The playoff teams are spread throughout the season's final regression report, from number 4 (Padres) to number 28 (Royals).

That may tell us something about what's ahead in the postseason, but it also tells us a lot about next season, too.

Playoff Teams Litter Top 10 of Regression Report

One way to interpret this report is that the teams at the top have overperformed or won more games than they should have.

The Padres, Phillies, Dodgers, Guardians and Orioles are all in the top 10 in Wins over Expected.

The first three of those also happen to be the teams I believe have the best chance of winning the World Series.

These teams generally played well, won close games and took advantage of opportunities over the season as a whole.

The Phillies are an interesting case, in that a torrid start filled with a lighter schedule early has been overshadowed by a mediocre second half.

I still believe the Phillies are a team built for the postseason, but they have to prove it beginning this weekend.

What About Playoff Teams Near the Bottom of the Regression Report?

The Yankees, Brewers, Astros, Braves and Royals are all in the bottom of third of the report with Kansas City coming in at 28th and winning 2.32 games less than they should have.

While I believe the Yankees are legitimate contenders if their bats stay hot, the other teams are longer shots to win the World Series.

Could these teams get hot and make a run? Of course, the Rangers came in 26th in last year's report and ended up winning it all.

Can We Use the Regression Report to Identify Teams to Watch in 2025?

This final report of the season is my starting point when I identify which teams are likely to improve next season.

Transactions matter more, such as Juan Soto to the Yankees, but this report helps identify which teams are likely to improve their win totals year over year.

While the White Sox may have broken the model, you should still expect more than 41 wins for them in 2025 and I lean towards improved win totals from the Royals, Cubs and Reds, depending on how their offseason plays out.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in "Wins over Expected" column will increase or decrease over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

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