First Round Upset Picks for March Madness (Longhorns and Spartans Ripe to Be Beat)
By Matt De Saro
The 2022 NCAA men's tournament bracket was unveiled Sunday with the Gonzaga Bulldogs earning yet another No. 1 overall seed in the West region. The other top seeds in the field are the Baylor Bears (East), Kansas Jayhawks (Midwest), and Arizona Wildcats (South).
While it was unheard of for a No. 1 seed to lose in the opening round of the men's tournament, the impossible happened in 2018 when No.16 UMBC beat No. 1 Virginia in the opening round of the tournament. It took 153 games to happen and only 15 of 143 all-time 1 vs. 16 games have been decided by fewer than 10 points. No matter how unlikely an outcome, it will eventually happen. That's the beauty of March!
That brings us to 2022 and if there are any potential upsets to look out for in the first round. I don’t see any upsets of No. 1 seeds but there are a lot of good underdogs in this opening round to keep an eye on.
Here are two of my favorites with all odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
No. 11 Virginia Tech Hokies (+1) vs. No. 6 Texas Longhorns
FRIDAY, MARCH 18, 4:30 PM ET
This might be a bit of recency bias, but the Hokies put together such an epic run in the ACC Tournament that I have to include them here. Not only did they beat the No. 2 seeded Duke in the finals, but they blew them out by 15 points.
Virginia Tech is no slouch either. They're the 23rd ranked team overall in the latest KenPom rankings; second in the ACC. The Hokies also have impressive wins over other tournament teams including Notre Dame and UNC.
The Hokies, as a team, were late bloomers after playing to a .500 record in their first 20 games. Ultimately, they got hot when it mattered most and I wouldn't be surprised to see them upset the Longhorns as short one-point underdogs.
Don't let the seed fool you!
No. 10 Davidson (+1.5) vs. No. 7 Michigan State
FRIDAY, MARCH 18, 9:40 p.m. ET
This could be one of the more exciting Round of 64 games we get to watch this year.
Davidson won the A-10 regular season and were challenged very little during the course of the year, up until No. 6 Richmond took them down in the A-10 Championship game.
This game will be a different story as the Spartans are not a lie-down and take it kind of team. But the Wildcats' offense is so efficient and they shoot three-pointers so well, that they are a danger to beat any team in the tournament. Davidson ranks 11th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, 14th in effective field goal percentage and 8th in college basketball in 3-point percentage.
Both these teams are right next to each other in overall KenPom rating, with Michigan State ranked 40th and Davidson coming in at 41. While the Wildcats' defense has been known for a letdown a time or to, it won't matter much if they get hot from downtown.
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