Flames vs. Stars Prediction and Odds for Game 4 (Don't Lose Faith in Calgary)

The Flames and Stars will face-off in Monday night Game 4.
The Flames and Stars will face-off in Monday night Game 4. / Richard Rodriguez/GettyImages
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The biggest surprise of the Western Conference so far is the Dallas Stars sporting a 2-1 series lead over the Calgary Flames. The Flames won Game 1, but have now lost two-straight and need to win tonight in order to re-gain home-ice advantage heading into Game 5.

The series has been defined by defense. Only a combined three goals were scored in the first two games, and then Game 3 had a final score of 4-2, thanks to a last-second empty netter.

Here are the odds via WynnBET for tonight's pivotal Game 4 in Dallas.

Flames vs. Stars Odds and Total

Moneyline:

  • Flames -160
  • Stars +140

Puck line:

  • Flames -1.5 (+165)
  • Stars +1.5 (-200)

Total:

  • 5.5 (Over +105/Under -125)

Flames vs. Stars Betting Trends

  • The UNDER is 4-1 in the Flames' last five games.
  • Stars are 6-3 in their last nine games vs. Flames.
  • Flames are 2-4 in their last six road games.
  • Stars are 5-2 in their last seven games.
  • Stars are 5-1 in their last six home games.

Flames vs. Stars Prediction and Pick

The Flames are down 2-1 in the series, but they've been largely dominating play through the first three games. Their CORSI% is 59.46%, which is the second best mark in the NHL Playoffs next to only the Avalanche, who are on the verge of a 4-0 sweep.

When it comes to expected goals, the Flames are averaging 3.03 expected goals per 60 minutes and the Stars are at 2.51. Obviously, advanced analytics don't determine the outcomes of games, but it's a promising sign for Flames fans and bettors.

A big reason for the Stars success has been their goaltending. Jake Oettinger has been the best goaltender through the first few games of the playoffs, sporting a save percentage of .969. He had a strong regular season, but with a save percentage of .914, I expect some regression from him in the coming games.

I'm not going to lose my faith in the Flames quite yet.

Pick: Flames -160


You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.