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Flames vs. Wild Prediction and Odds (Fade the Over Trend in Western Conference Matchup)

By Iain MacMillan

The Flames and Wild are set to face-off in a Western Conference showdown on Thursday night.
The Flames and Wild are set to face-off in a Western Conference showdown on Thursday night. / Derek Leung/GettyImages
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The Calgary Flames have the top spot in the Pacific Division locked up, but they face a Minnesota Wild team that still has something to gain in the final two games of the regular season.

The Wild will be taking on the St. Louis Blues in the first round of the playoffs, but home ice advantage is yet to be determined. The two teams are currently tied with 109 points, but the Wild have a game in hand.

The Wild would lose the tiebreaker to the Blues based on regulation wins, so they'll need to squeak out at least three points in their final two games to get home-ice advantage, assuming the Blues beat the Golden Knights on Friday night.

Let's take a look at the odds via WynnBET for tonight's Western Conference matchup.

Flames vs. Wild Odds and Total

Moneyline:

  • Flames +100
  • Wild -120

Puck line:

  • Flames +1.5 (-230)
  • Wild -1.5 (+190)

Total:

  • 6.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Flames vs. Wild Betting Trends

  • The OVER is 6-2 in the Flames' last eight games.
  • Flames are 4-1 in last five games vs. Wild.
  • Flames are 7-1 in last eight road games.
  • The OVER is 7-1 in the Wild's last eight games.
  • Wild are 12-2 in last 14 home games.

Flames vs. Wild Prediction and Pick

My bold pick for the NHL Playoffs is that the Minnesota Wild will eliminate the Avalanche in the second round and meet the Flames in the Western Conference Final, which means this could be a preview of what's to come.

The Wild have been playing some of their best hockey of the season as of late, and now they have something more to gain with a win tonight against the Flames. A regulation loss may doom them to losing home ice advantage to the Blues in the first round.

With all of that being said, I think the UNDER 6.5 at -120 is the bet to make tonight, despite the OVER being the hot trend for both teams. The Wild and Flames rank first and fourth in expected goals against per 60 minutes over their last 25 games, and first and third in high danger scoring chances allowed.

Simply put, these are two of the best defensive teams in the NHL, and I'm not going to let a trend sway me away from following the statistics.

Pick: UNDER 6.5 (-120)

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

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