Florida vs. Alabama Prediction, Odds and Key Players for SEC Tournament Quarterfinal (Go with the Gators)

College basketball betting preview, prediction and best bet for Florida-Alabama.

Mar 14, 2024; Nashville, TN, USA;  Florida Gators guard Walter Clayton Jr. (1) shoots against the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Tournament.
Mar 14, 2024; Nashville, TN, USA; Florida Gators guard Walter Clayton Jr. (1) shoots against the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Tournament. / Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

Two of the nation’s top offenses clash in Nashville in the SEC Tournament on Friday with a sky-high point total. Florida had enough to beat Georgia, 85-80, in the SEC Tournament on Thursday night. Alabama had a first-round bye and opens the conference tournament as a small favorite at Bridgestone Arena.

Less than two weeks ago, Florida put up 105 points on Alabama in Gainesville in a win. Can the Crimson Tide bounce back? Here’s the betting breakdown of the matchup with a best bet. 

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Florida vs. Alabama Odds, Spread and Total

Florida vs. Alabama Betting Trends

  • Florida is 14-17-1 ATS this season
  • Alabama is 17-14 ATS this season
  • Florida is 4-3 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Alabama is 15-8 ATS as a favorite this season
  • The OVER is 19-11-1 in Florida games this season
  • The OVER is 23-8 in Alabama games this season

Florida vs. Alabama How to Watch

  • Date: Friday, March 15 
  • Game time: 9:30 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Bridgestone Arena
  • How to watch (TV): SEC Network
  • Florida record: 22-10
  • Alabama record: 21-10

Florida vs. Alabama Key Players to Watch


Walter Clayton Jr.: The 6-foot-2 junior averages a team-high 17.1 points per game to go with 3.7 rebounds and 2.6 assists. He opened the SEC Tournament with 22 points and 4 rebounds in Florida’s win over Georgia Thursday. Clayton had 22 points in the win over Alabama March 5. 


Grant Nelson: The 6-foot-11 senior forward is one of four double-digit scorers in the Crimson Tide offense. He averages 12 points per game and a team-high 5.7 rebounds while shooting nearly 50% from the field. Nelson has scored in double figures in five of the last six games and is coming off a 14-point, 13-rebound double-double in Alabama’s win over Arkansas in the regular-season finale. 

Florida vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick 

In the matchup on March 5, Florida’s defense did enough in a free-throw fest (71 combined attempts) to hold off the high-scoring Crimson Tide. Florida held Alabama to 5-of-23 from beyond the arc. Can they bring that same defense in a projected shootout? 

Pick any offensive metric you want and Alabama will be near the best in the nation in it. The Crimson Tide, No. 3 in offensive efficiency and No. 11 in effective field goal percentage, per KenPom, is a top-10 shooting offense from inside the arc and makes an SEC-best 11.2 three-pointers per game. 

Florida’s defense can get stops, though, something the Gators showed earlier this month in an 18-point win over Alabama. The Gators are No. 1 in the SEC against 3-point shots and allow the third-fewest triples in the conference (6.8 per game). Florida doesn’t force a lot of turnovers, but that could change with Alabama’s fast and loose style of play. The Crimson Tide are 11th in the SEC in turnover percentage and 13th in steal percentage. Florida forced 13 turnovers in the first matchup. 

Offensively, Florida can keep pace with any team. The Gators are No. 17 in offensive efficiency and have a big advantage on the glass. Florida is a top-5 offensive rebounding team in the country and Alabama is No. 11 in the SEC in offensive rebounds allowed per game (11.6). Look for Florida to capitalize on second-chance opportunities against an Alabama defense that is last in the SEC in scoring (80.4 points per game) while its defense gets enough stops to hang around. Take the points with the Gators. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.