Florida vs. Kentucky Expert Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 5

Two rivals renew pleasantries in Lexington, Kentucky on Saturday afternoon when Florida travels to Kentucky to take on the Wildcats.

Kentucky has cruised through its first four games as it acclimates new quarterback Devin Leary to Liam Coen's system, but will face its toughest opponent to date in a loaded Florida defense that shut down the likes of Tennessee already this season.

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Florida vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread and Total

Kentucky vs. Florida Betting Trends

• Florida leads this series 53-20, but Kentucky has won the past two
• Florida is 1-3 against the spread (ATS) this season
• Florida has gone UNDER in all four games
• Kentucky is 3-1 ATS this season

Florida vs. Kentucky How to Watch

Date: Saturday, September 30th
Game Time: 12:00 PM EST
Venue: Kroger Field
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Florida Record: 3-1
Kentucky Record: 4-0

Florida vs. Kentucky Key Players to Watch

Florida

Graham Mertz: Mertz has done well in the new Gators system after transferring from Wisconsin. While he may lack the downfield passing ability, Mertz is making the most of his opportunity, completing 77% of his passes and only throwing one interception. However, his worst game came in the team's only other road game at Utah. How will his play translate when he goes on the road?

Kentucky

Devin Leary: Leary has had some growing pains after undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery last year with NC State, posting a nine-to-five touchdown-to-interception ratio. While he has not put up eye-popping numbers, he has helped engineer an offense that is above average in EPA/Play and success rate this season.

Florida vs. Kentucky Prediction and Pick

This is setting up to be a defensive struggle with both teams still unproven in the passing game and questions on each offensive line. Florida's offense has faced far tougher defenses and has been methodical and conservative. The Gators are 44th in yards per play, but are 72nd in sacks allowed, checking in outside the top 100 in explosive pass rate.

Meanwhile, Kentucky's numbers look rock solid but the team has played suspect competition: two MAC teams, an FCS team and the worst team in the SEC. Meanwhile, Kentucky's offensive line remains outside the top 100 in line yards and 88th in completion percentage to date.

Now the team plays a stout Florida defense that has held Utah and Tennessee to below 20 points and is top 10 in offensive line yards and allowing less than three yards per play on the ground this season.

I don't trust either quarterback at the moment to test either team down the field, and I believe both teams will opt to keep the game on the ground. Further, each team is outside the top 100 in terms of plays per minute, so I expect limited opportunities for points to get on the board.

REED'S PICK: Under 44

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here.