Florida vs. Tennessee Prediction, Odds, Key Players for Tuesday, Jan. 16

Jan 13, 2024; Athens, Georgia, USA; Tennessee Volunteers guard Dalton Knecht (3) reacts with forward
Jan 13, 2024; Athens, Georgia, USA; Tennessee Volunteers guard Dalton Knecht (3) reacts with forward / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Tennessee Volunteers rallied late at Georgia to snag a road win in SEC play, and Rick Barnes' group will look to continue its momentum at home against Florida.

The Gators are looking like an NCAA Tournament team under second-year head coach Todd Golden, but can use a signature road win against an elite Tennessee team to prove its worth. Florida has been on the road sparingly this season and has some poor results, can the team match up with the Vols, who have one of the best scorers in the country in Dalton Knecht?

Here's our look at Tuesday's SEC showdown:

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Florida vs. Tennessee Odds, Spread and Total

Tennessee vs. Florida Betting Trends

  • Tennessee is 6-10 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Florida is 0-2 ATS as an underdog
  • Florida has gone OVER in both games as an underdog
  • Florida has gone OVER in 11 of 16 games this season

Florida vs. Tennessee How to Watch

  • Date: Tuesday, January 16th
  • Game Time: 5:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Thompson-Boling Arena
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
  • Florida Record: 11-5
  • Tennessee Record: 12-4

Florida vs. Tennessee Key Players to Watch


Walton Clayton Jr.: The Iona transfer has settled in nicely with the Gators, averaging about 16 points per game with almost four rebounds and three assists per game while shooting better than 34% from beyond the arc. Clayton has some heat-check tendencies, scoring 20 or more in two of three SEC games.


Dalton Knecht: A front runner to be a first-team All-American, Knecht has been a star in his first season in Knoxville, averaging 17 points per game and four rebounds while shooting 47% from the field and nearly 40% from beyond the arc on a healthy dose of 12 field goal attempts. He is fresh off a monster outing against Georgia, scoring 36 points to spark a 21-4 closing rally from the Vols in a six-point road win.

Florida vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick

Florida gives me a bit of concern heading into this one on the road given its limited sample of true road games this season. The team is 0-2 in away games, losing by double digits in both games while posting putrid defensive marks, including the 354th-ranked effective field goal percentage. Of course, it's a small sample size, but it won't get easier against the Vols, who are a bona fide title contender.

The Gators will do a great job of crashing the glass, the team is third in the nation in offensive rebounding rate, but the Vols have the size down low to clean up misses and generate offense the other way. Tennessee is 88th in the country in defensive rebounding rate and has improved that mark in league play by two percent.

Meanwhile, I expect Knecht and the Vols offense to keep on humming at home against a Gators defense that is outside the top 300 in terms of turnover percentage this season. Tennessee has the best offense in SEC play thus far, dominating opponents inside with a near-58% two-point field goal percentage. The Gators do a good job of limiting three-point tries but by funneling opponents inside, the Vols will cook on the interior.

Tennessee should pull away, but I'll opt for the team total instead of trusting the team to blow out a talented UF team with offensive firepower.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.