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Fresno State vs. Boise State Prediction and Odds for Mountain West Championship Game (Both Teams Peaking)

By Reed Wallach

Nov 25, 2022; Boise, Idaho, USA; Boise State Broncos quarterback Taylen Green (10) throws down field
Nov 25, 2022; Boise, Idaho, USA; Boise State Broncos quarterback Taylen Green (10) throws down field / Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports
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It has been a tale of two seasons for both Boise State and Fresno State this season and now the two preseason favorites meet in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game.

Boise State hosts the MWC title game, a bumpy ride back to the game after the team benched starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier and fired their offensive coordinator, they caught fire with freshman quarterback Taylen Green and ran through the Mountain West slate to the title game.

They will host Fresno State, who has a prolific quarterback in Jake Haener, but lost him to an injury for several weeks during the year against USC, costing him several conference games. However, the team rallied around backup Logan Fife and the return of Haener helped lead them to the title game.

Here's our betting preview for the Mountain West Conference Championship:

Fresno State vs. Boise State Odds, Spread and Total

Fresno State vs. Boise State Betting Trends

  • Fresno State is 1-2 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog this season
  • Fresno State is 2-4 ATS on the road this season
  • Boise State is 4-2 ATS at home this season
  • Boise State has gone OVER in five of six home games this season

Fresno State vs. Boise State Prediction and Pick

While Boise State's offense underwent wholesale changes with Green taking over under center and the team bringing back Dirk Koetter to be the offensive coordinator, the defense has been fantastic all season.

It's worth noting that Boise State beat Fresno State 40-20 in Week 6, but Fife was under center, so I don't think there are sweeping assumptions to make.

The Broncos bolster a defense that is top 10 in success rate allowed and yards per play allowed and can shut down the opposing passing game, posting a top five success rate against the pass and the second best completion percentage allowed in the country.

They will get a stiff test against Haener and the Fresno State offense that has scored 30 or more points in the five games that he has started since returning from an ankle injury.

However, the defense is the big concern. The team is outside the top 80 nationally in line yards this season, and allowed 28 or more to the likes of San Diego State and UNLV recently. Not to mention, they allowed 40 points to Boise State in the process. Overall, the team struggles to limit chunk plays, outside the top 90 in explosive run and pass rate.

Both offenses should find success, but I trust Boise State's defense a lot more at home to get this done. I lean towards the Broncos to slow down Haener and Fresno State and take home the Mountain West title.

Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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