Fresno State vs. New Mexico Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Wednesday, March 6 (Take the points)

College basketball betting preview, prediction and best bet for Fresno State-New Mexico.

Feb 24, 2024; Fresno, California, USA; Fresno State Bulldogs guard Isaiah Hill (3) stands on the court.
Feb 24, 2024; Fresno, California, USA; Fresno State Bulldogs guard Isaiah Hill (3) stands on the court. / Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Latest bracketology projections have New Mexico making the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2014, though the Lobos have not solidified their resume over recent play and that’s why they’re on the bubble with two regular-season games left.

New Mexico has lost two of its last three games and will look to bounce back as a monster favorite Wednesday night against visiting Fresno State.

The Bulldogs have dropped five straight since beating the two worst teams in the Mountain West (Air Force, San Jose State) over a four-day stretch in early February. Can they hang within the big number in Albuquerque? Here’s the betting preview for Wednesday’s Mountain West action with a best bet. 

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Fresno State vs. New Mexico Odds, Spread and Total

Fresno State vs. New Mexico Betting Trends

  • Fresno State is 13-15 ATS this season
  • New Mexico is 17-11 ATS this season
  • Fresno State is 8-11 ATS as an underdog this season
  • New Mexico is 16-7 ATS as a favorite this season
  • The OVER is 17-11 in Fresno State games this season
  • The OVER is 16-12 in New Mexico games this season

Fresno State vs. New Mexico How to Watch

  • Date: Wednesday, March 6
  • Game time: 10:30 p.m. EST
  • Venue: The Pit
  • How to watch (TV): FS1
  • Fresno State record: 11-18 (4-12 Mountain West)
  • New Mexico record: 21-8 (9-7 Mountain West)

Fresno State vs. New Mexico Key Players to Watch

Fresno State

Isaiah Hill: The 6-foot senior guard is the Bulldogs’ leading scorer at 12.6 points per game, though he’s only shooting 39.9% from the field this year. Hill is one of the best facilitators in the league, though, ranking third in the Mountain West in assists (6.1 per game). Hill has played 40 minutes in back-to-back games, combining for 37 points, six rebounds and seven assists. 

New Mexico 

Donovan Dent: The sophomore guard is one of three players in the New Mexico lineup averaging 15+ points per game. He leads the team at 15.2 points per night and leads in assists (5.5), as well. Dent is shooting 52.5% from the field this season and is coming off an 11-point, 6-assist performance in Saturday’s loss to Boise State. 

Fresno State vs. New Mexico Prediction and Pick 

New Mexico’s offense, ranked No. 34 in KenPom in efficiency, plays at the No. 5 tempo in the nation and faces a Fresno State defense that is No. 222 overall and ranks ninth in the Mountain West in scoring, yielding 72.9 points per game. 

New Mexico boasts the highest-scoring offense in the Mountain West and Fresno State struggles the most from the perimeter, ranking No. 337 against 3-point shots. However, perimeter shooting is not the Lobos’ strength, ranking seventh in the league in 3-point shooting.

Defensively, New Mexico is No. 39 in efficiency, but have allowed 78 or more points in six of the last eight games, going 3-5 straight up in that stretch. 

Despite its struggles, Fresno State is a top-100 shooting team. New Mexico smothers the perimeter, but Fresno State attempts just 20.8 triples per game. The Bulldogs are much more efficient inside the arc (No. 50 in 2-point shooting) and that’s where New Mexico is not as good defensively (No. 142). 

Fresno State is just 8-11 ATS as an underdog, but has covered in five of its last seven games when getting points, including back-to-back covers as a double-digit underdog.

It’s been a different story in this spot for New Mexico, which has covered in just two of its last eight games. The Bulldogs are efficient enough offensively to hang within this big number. Take the points. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.