Genesis Invitational Hole in One Odds (Will There Be an Ace on PGA Tour This Week?)

The Genesis Invitational hasn't started yet, but the hype is starting to build around Riviera Country Club with the mid-week Pro-Am netting a hole in one when Justin Thomas found the hole off the tee at No. 16.

Will this trickle over into the Genesis Invitiational? You can bet on if there will be a hole in one at the Genesis Invitational. Is it worthwhile to wager on it?

Riviera Country Club, home to this week’s Genesis Invitational is home to one of the most unique and recognizable Par 3s all over the world. The par 3 sixth hole measures only 199 yards, but there’s a catch.

For some reason, almost 100 years ago in 1927, course architect George Thomas decided to put a bunker smack dab in the middle of the green. That decision has caused some unique results anywhere from bunker hole-outs to four-putts to yes, even aces. Since 1983, there have been 18 aces on the famed sixth hole.

Riviera’s 16th hole is another par 3 measuring 166 yards. Since 1983, there have been 11 aces with the most recent coming in 2021 when Tae Hoon Kim, playing on a sponsor invite, won a car for his ace.

Riviera’s fourth hole is a brute of a par 3 as it measures 236 yards while the 14th hole measures 192 yards. There have been a combination of 13 aces on these two par threes. 

All told, there have been 43 holes in one at Riviera since 1983. If my math is correct that adds up to an average of about 1 per year.

Can we rely on the law of averages for a hole in one this week?  

The Genesis Invitational Hole-in-One Odds

Odds below are via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Yes +115

• No -150

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No is a solid favorite, and logic would say that makes sense given the odds of actually making a hole in one. According to the National Hole-in-One Registry, the odds for a professional are +300000. The odds seem insurmountable, but somehow the pros HAVE managed to average one per year at Riviera.

Given that frequency over the past 40 years, I think there’s some value in the “yes" prop at plus odds. Plus, we have already seen JT show us the way.

 PICK: YES (+115)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.