Genesis Invitational Picks and Predictions (How to Bet at Riviera Country Club)

The week before the WM Phoenix Open at the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am, I had Nick Taylor (+9000) on the card.  Alas, I did not have him on my original card last week. However, during his first round, I saw him marching up the leaderboard and took him live at +5000. That first round 60 propelled him to an incredible win and finally gave me my first outright of the year.

If I’ve learned one thing this year, it is to watch the live betting odds as they tend to lag just slightly behind play. This week, it’s the final week of the California Swing as the PGA Tour returns to another classic stop.

The event name and host have changed a bunch since the inaugural LA Open in 1929, but the course has remained the same. The pros tee it up at famed Riviera Country Club (AKA “Hogan’s Alley”) for the Genesis Invitational hosted by Tiger Woods. 

My thoughts this week: The six-week streak of longshot winners will end. There are too many top-level California locals playing well and too many top-five studs in the field. Plus, this is another “Elevated Event” with a $20 million purse. 

My longest shot this week is only +3300, and I’m sure most golf prognosticators will have him on their cards. For once, I don’t think any of my Lucky Seven (plus two) will surprise anyone.

The Genesis Invitational Picks

Scottie Scheffler (+650)

Form: I don’t like picking favorites often, but Scheffler is my pick to win this week.  His combination of current form and track record here are the best, and I think he’s motivated after failing to win last week. 

At Phoenix, Scheffler looked like he would grab victory from the longshots, but a balky putter down the stretch stalled his charge to victory. He finished tied for third, which now gives him three top 10s in four starts this year. 

Horse for course: In four starts, Scheffler has three top 20s including a T-12 last year and a tie for seventh in 2022.

Stats: It’s not surprising Scheffler’s stats reflect his good play this season. He ranks first in strokes gained tee-to-green GIR, scoring average, birdie average, bounce back, and par 4 scoring. He ranks second in strokes gained approaching the green. What’s holding him back?  He ranks 123, 138, and 114 from putts from four to eight feet, four feet, and three feet, respectively.

Local Ties: Texan through and through.

Odds: Par for the course, as they say.

Rory McIlroy (+1000)

Form: McIlroy only has one start in America this year, that being a dismal T-66 at Pebble Beach. But abroad on the DP Tour, he finished second to Tommy Fleetwood at the Dubai Invitational and won the Hero Dubai Desert Classic the following week. I surely expect him to contend for the win.

Horse for course: In six starts here, his best is a tie for fourth in 2019. He has a tie for fifth in 2020 and two T-20s and a T-16.

Stats: Having only played one tournament, the Tour does not yet have 2024 stats for Rory. For 2023, he ranked first in driving distance, second in strokes gained total, third in strokes gained off the tee, eighth in strokes gained in approaching the green, fifth in scoring average and a respectable 30th in putting average. Surprisingly, he only ranked 79th in GIR and 66th in scrambling. 

Local Ties: We all know Rory is from Northern Ireland so no local ties here.

Odds: Another par for the course.

Xander Schauffele (+1400)

Form: Schauffele did not play last week after his disappointing T-54 finish at Pebble Beach. Before that, he had three top 10s in three starts including a season-best third at The Amex.

Horse for course: The first of the four local Cal boys, “X” has been consistent here but has yet to break through the top five. In six starts, he has a tie for ninth in 2018 and three other top-15 finishes.

Stats: Schauffele’s stats remain consistent. He ranks 13th in strokes gained off the tee, 18th in strokes gained approaching the green, 14th in total driving, second in GIR, 17th in scrambling, and 10th in scoring average. Like many on our list this week, he’s struggling with his putting. He ranks in the 100s in 11 putting categories. Yikes!

Local Ties:  Bigtime local SoCal product who attended SDSU.

Odds: No betting advantage here as X is priced as a favorite.

Justin Thomas (+1600)

Form: The slump is over. Thomas hasn’t won but he’s contending.  Last week, he contended before finishing T-12. He also contended in his two other starts, finishing with a tie for sixth at Pebble Beach and a tie for third at The Amex. 

Horse for course: “JT” has played well here in his last five appearances, which includes a second in 2019, a sixth in 2022, a tie for ninth in 2018, and a T-20 last year.

Stats: While his putting and driving accuracy stats are lagging in the 120s, he ranks eighth in strokes gained tee-to-green, third in strokes gained around-the-green, 23rd in GIR, first in scrambling, second in scoring average, third in birdie average, and fourth in par 4 scoring.

Local Ties: The native Kentuckian went to Bama and now plays out of the Jupiter Florida area.

Odds: We are not getting any betting edge with the odds this week as JT is also amongst the favorites.

Colin Morikawa (+1800)

Form: Morikawa finished T-14 at Pebble Beach and opened the season with a tie for fifth at The Sentry. He missed the cut at The Farmers in his only other start.

Horse for course: In his four starts here, his best is a tie for second in 2022. He finished tied for sixth last year.

Stats: Morikowa ranks eighth in driving accuracy, ninth in strokes gained off the tee, 11th in GIR, 18th in scoring average, second in birdie average, and a surprising seventh in putting average. 

Odds: Just like the rest, no advantage here.

Max Homa (+1800)

Form: I have to say, I’m surprised at Homa’s results thus far. He started the year ok with a T-14 and a T-13 but finished T-66 at Pebble Beach and missed the cut last week. If not for a stellar track record here (see below) he would not make my card.

Horse for course: Homa is THE horse for course this week. His last four starts here are a second, a T-10, a win, and a tie for fifth. 

Stats: Homa’s overall stats are a bit disappointing. On the good side, he ranks 17th in strokes gained off the tee, ninth in strokes gained around the green, and 12th in scrambling. However, he ranks 99th in driving accuracy, 93rd in GIR, 100th in birdie average, 106th in scoring average, and ranks in the 100s in 10 putting categories.

Local Ties: Cal kid #3. Yet another local who attended Cal Berkeley.

Odds: As expected.

Patrick Cantlay (+2000)

Form: A mixed bag for Cantlay this year. Last week, DNP.  He finished T-11 at Pebble Beach and T-12 at The Sentry, sandwiched by a T-52 and a T-56 at The Amex and The Farmers respectively.

Horse for course: Except for a T-33 in 2022, Cantlay has finished in the top 20 in every start including a third last year, a tie for fourth in 2018, and a streak of T-15, T-17, and T-15 during 2019-2021.

Stats: Cantlay’s stats aren’t much better than Homa’s. His best strokes gained stat is 88th in strokes gained off the tee.  He’s a dreadful 152nd in total driving, 52nd in GIR, 67th in scrambling, 85th in putting average, and 48th in scoring average. He does rank 20th in birdie average and first in first-round scoring average. Perhaps we will take a flyer on FRL at +2800.

Local Ties: Last of the local Cal kids. Cantlay attended UCLA.

Odds: We might have a slight betting edge here as we don’t see Cantlay at 20 or above very often.

Jordan Spieth (+2500)

Form: Like his game, Spieth has been up and down. He finished tied for sixth last week and opened the season with a solo third at The Sentry and finished T-39 at Pebble in his only other start.

Horse for course: Spieth had better results earlier in his career with a T-12, a tie for fourth, and a tie for ninth in his first three starts. Since 2019, his best finish is a T-15 in 2021. He missed the cut last year.

Stats: Spieth’s stats are pretty much as expected. He’s only 80th in total driving but ranks 11th in strokes gained around the green, fifth in GIR, 19th in scrambling, and second in putting average. His putting stats are boosted by his first-place ranking in putts from 25 feet but still struggles from four feet only ranking 100th from that distance and only 114th from three feet.

Local Ties: Another true Texan. 

Odds: Spieth’s a true wild card.  You never quite know what you’re going to get.  His odds are fair here.

Adam Scott (+3300)

Form: I had Scott already on the card a week ago based on his success here and was hoping he could play well at The WM last week. He closed well with rounds of 65-66 on the weekend to finish in a tie for eighth. In his only other start this year, Scott finished T-20 at Pebble Beach.

Horse for course: One could argue, his record here is even better than Homa’s. He has a win in 2020, a tie for second in 2017, a tie for fourth in 2022, and a tie for seventh in 2019. Last year he finished 65th.

Stats: Scott is as steady as they come. He ranks sixth in strokes gained total, 22nd in strokes gained off the tee, fifth in strokes gained approaching the green, 24th in total driving, eighth in GIR, third in proximity to the hole, 21st in scrambling, and 16th in scoring average. If he could get that broomstick putter to work, he’d have something. He ranks in the 100s in seven putting categories. 

Local Ties:  Nothing local for this Aussie, although he did attend UNLV so he can claim a bit of the West Coast.

Odds: Given his track record here, I think he got a boost.

Last Man Out

Sam Burns (+2200)