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George Mason vs. Fordham Prediction and Odds for A-10 Tournament Second Round (Go Under in the 8-9 Game)

By Ben Heisler

The Fordham Rams own a top 50 adjusted defense in college basketball this season, and have seen their odds move in their favor vs George Mason today.
The Fordham Rams own a top 50 adjusted defense in college basketball this season, and have seen their odds move in their favor vs George Mason today. / Mitchell Leff/GettyImages
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The 8-9 round of the Atlantic 10 Tournament in Washington D.C. tips off at noon ET when the 9-seeded George Mason Patriots match up against the 8-seed Fordham Rams.

The Rams got the best of the Patriots in their one matchup earlier this year, winning a defensive battle 50-47 at home, limiting George Mason to under 48% from inside the arc, and just 25% from three-point range. Fordham's defense ended up being the key difference holding George Mason to just six points in the final 10 minutes. More on that in a bit.

Who advances to play the top seeded Davidson Wildcats on Friday?

Here are the latest odds over at WynnBET Sportsbook.

George Mason vs. Fordham Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • George Mason +5.5 (-110)
  • Fordham -5.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • George Mason -230
  • Fordham +190

Total:

  • 130 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

George Mason vs. Fordham Prediction and Pick

After a rough offensive performance from both teams the last time out, combining for only 97 total points back on February 20th, I'm expecting more points to be scored this time around. However, the total of 130 still projects too high for me, leaving the under very much in play.

Fordham is outstanding on the defensive end, ranking 51st overall in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency and third in the A-10 behind elite defensive units like VCU and Dayton. They're also painfully inefficient on the offensive side of the ball, coming in at 312th nationally while also ranking in the bottom 100 for average possession length.

As for George Mason, they shoot a TON of threes, and against elite defensive teams, they've struggled to make shots. They lost both games to VCU, a top 4 adjusted defensive team twice, and only scored 50 against Dayton, while still coming up with a 50-49 victory.

With enough of a sample this year against teams that close out well, I don't expect Mason to make a ton of threes because Fordham won't give them many open looks. They should do better than 25%, but Fordham won't do much to help their own cause offensively either.

I'll back the under yet again.

LEAN: UNDER 130 (-110)

Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE.

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