Georgia vs. Florida Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 9
By Reed Wallach
Georgia restarts its pursuit of a three-peat on a neutral site in the "World's Largest Cocktail Party" against rival Florida.
Both Georgia and Florida had a BYE before this annual matchup in Jacksonville, Florida, with the Bulldogs looking to come out with answers to how the offense will make up for the loss of Brock Bowers for likely the rest of the regular season. The Gators offense looked to take a step forward, scoring 41 at South Carolina, but the Georiga defense is a far greater test.
How will this all shake out?
Here's our betting preview:
Georgia vs. Florida Odds, Spread and Total
Florida vs. Georgia Betting Trends
- Georgia is 1-6 against the spread (ATS) this season
- Florida is 3-4 ATS this season
- Both teams have gone OVER in four of seven games
Georgia vs. Florida How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, October 28th
- Game Time: 3:30 PM EST
- Venue: EverBank Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): CBS
- Georgia Record: 7-0
- Florida Record: 5-2
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Georgia vs. Florida Key Players to Watch
Georgia
Carson Beck: With Brock Bowers going down with an ankle injury, more pressure is going to be on Beck to perform, who has been incredibly efficient this season. However, how will he perform without his top target? On the year, Beck has passed for 2,147 yards with 15 total touchdowns to four interceptions while completing more than 73% of his passes.
Florida
Graham Mertz: Mertz played his best game of his Florida career two weeks ago in a come-from-behind win at South Carolina. He passed for 423 yards while passing 48 times, tossing three touchdowns in the process. On the year, Florida has been an efficient offense despite the strength of schedule starting to get more difficult as SEC play picks up, top 30 in success rate. Mertz may have a low average depth of target, less than seven yards, but he's making it work with only one turnover-worthy play this season, per Pro Football Focus.
Georgia vs. Florida Prediction and Pick
While Mertz has come under fire as a game manager, he is generating sound offense for the Gators, completing more than three-quarters of his passes, and has passed for at least 240 yards in five of seven games.
Yes, Georgia has a ton of firepower on defense and can give an outmanned Florida team issues on the offensive line, but the team has been on the wrong side of some variance-driven stats, like allowing a touchdown on 73% of opponent's red zone trips, 118th in the country. The Bulldogs get pressure at a high clip but only have 12 sacks on the year, 107th nationally, can Florida come out of an off week with some chunk plays for the likes of Ricky Pearsall and Trevor Etienne?
I believe so, especially when looking at the point totals Georgia has allowed this season. Vanderbilt and Auburn each scored 20 points against the Bulldogs and UAB was able to put up 21.
With that being said, I think Georgia is still going to take care of business and flirt with a cover without Bowers. The Bulldogs are near the top of the country in nearly every major offensive statistic, including points per drive, where the team is scoring nearly four points every time it has the ball. The team is also averaging north of seven yards per play.
Florida has talent on defense, but the team is outside the top 100 in tackles for loss and explosive play rate. I think that Georgia's offensive coordinator Mike Bobo can scheme up some deep shots and get some quick and easy scores to help this game get over the total.
With both quarterbacks having time to go through their respective progressions, I believe this will be a higher-scoring affair than this low total indicates.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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