For as competitive as the Giants hope to be the rest of the season, their sweep at the Dodgers' hands over the last four days shows just how far away they are from being a true contender.
They'll get the opportunity to beat up on a bad team tonight, though, as they open a series in Arizona with Jakob Junis making his second appearance since returning from the Injured List. He threw two ineffective innings his first time out but should be closer to normal in this one. He was marvelous prior to getting hurt, allowing more than three runs just once and compiling a 1.71 ERA on the road.
Arizona counters with Tyler Gilbert, who has a 1.46 ERA at home. Gilbert's underlying metrics aren't pretty though, and he's yet to throw six innings in a start.
Both bullpens figure to be leaned on heavily today, but who has the betting edge?
To answer that questions and find value in this Giants vs Diamondbacks matchup, let's first take a peak at the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:
Giants vs Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line and Total
- Giants -1.5 (+125)
- Diamondbacks +1.5 (-150)
- Giants: -124
- Diamondbacks: +114
- 9.0 (Over -110/Under -110)
Giants vs Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick
Provided Junis will be able to throw closer to his normal amount of pitches, the Giants have a huge advantage on the mound. They'd won each of Junis' last four starts prior to getting hurt as he showcased exceptional command and nasty breaking pitches. Opponents are hitting just .195 against his slider, which is a pitch the Diamondbacks' lineup is terrible against.
Arizona has fared well as home underdogs, winning six of nine, but it will struggle against Junis today. The D-Backs won't have much margin for error with Tyler Gilbert pitching either. The Giants have the fifth-best OPS against left-handed pitchers over the last three weeks, and Gilbert has a disastrous 6.76 expected ERA. His MLB Statcast Pitching Profile illustrates just how poor he's been:
With an improving lineup, San Francisco should take advantage of Gilbert's inadequacies. I'll back the visitors to snap its four-game losing streak as Junis impresses.
Pick: Giants (-124)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.