Giants vs. Padres Prediction: Fade Jake Arrieta Tonight

Jake Arrieta is set to get his third start with the San Diego Padres this season.
Jake Arrieta is set to get his third start with the San Diego Padres this season. / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

If you follow me on Twitter or have been reading my MLB articles this season, you know that one of my favorite MLB betting strategies is also one of the simplest; fade bad pitchers.

Don’t overthink it. Yes, even the worst pitchers will occasionally have a half-decent start, but don’t let the possibility of one scare you away from betting against them.

One of the top pitchers to fade this season is Jake Arrieta, who will enter tonight’s start for the San Diego Padres with an abysmal earned run average of 7.04. He will face Anthony DeSclafani (3.33 ERA) and the San Francisco Giants in the second game of a four-game NL West series.

WynnBET has the Giants set as -180 favorites with the Padres coming in as +150 road underdogs. The total for the game is set at nine runs.

Padres vs. Giants Prediction and Pick

If you don’t mind the juice, you can take the Giants at -180 (bet $180 to profit $100) on the moneyline. If you don’t mind being aggressive you can take the Giants on the -1.5 runline (win by at least two runs) at +115 (bet $100 to profit $115).

But what I’m going to do, which is usually my default bet when fading a starting pitcher, is take the Giants team total over.

WynnBET has the Giants team total set at five, and the over presents great value at -110 odds.

Arrieta has allowed at least three earned runs in four straight starts, and hasn’t had a start where he’s allowed only one run since June 9. In his only start against the Giants this season, he allowed six runs in only two innings.

Pair that with the fact the Padres rank 21st in bullpen ERA (4.48) dating back to Aug.1, and I think we have a great little wager here

Give me the over on the Giants team total of five runs tonight.

Download the WynnBET app now to make your pick.