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Giants vs. Reds Prediction and Odds for Saturday, May 28 (San Fran to Tee Off on Vladimir Gutierrez in Cincinnati)

By Ben Heisler

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Vladimir Gutierrez hands the ball off to manager David Bell following his recent outing.
Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Vladimir Gutierrez hands the ball off to manager David Bell following his recent outing. / Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY
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The Cincinnati Reds have gone into a whole new gear in the month of May.

Following a 3-18 start in April, the Reds have gone 12-12 since, and look to take the series vs. the San Francisco Giants at Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati this afternoon.

They'll need a turnaround from starter Vladimir Gutierrez if they plan to get it done. The young-right hander is 0-6 with an ERA approaching 9. Gutierrez squares off against veteran left-hander Alex Wood, who also finds himself sputtering through the first two months of the season.

San Francisco is still four games above .500, but find themselves fading quickly in the NL West race. Can they begin their turnaround on Saturday?

Here are the latest odds for Saturday afternoon's matchup over at WynnBET Sportsbook.

Giants vs. Reds Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Giants -1.5 (-115)
  • Reds +1.5 (-105)

Moneyline:

  • Giants -173
  • Reds +158

Total:

  • 9.5 (OVER -105 | UNDER -115)

Giants vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

It's ideal hitting conditions in a traditional bandbox of a park in Cincinnati, and with both pitchers struggling, I'm taking the over at 9.5 runs.

To say Gutierrez has been bad this season may be an understatement. He's been atrocious. His ERA is 8.70 while walking 6.3 batters per nine innings and allowing more than two home runs per nine. With a Fielder Independent Pitching of 7.27, it's not as if he's been unlucky relative to his ERA. Teams are simply teeing off on him every time he takes the mound.

For Wood, his last two starts have not gone well; allowing eight earned runs in just 7.1 combined innings with 14 total hits. Overall, he's been a bit unlucky with his FIP closer to 3.57 and an expected FIP of 3.15; but even if he hasn't gotten the right breaks, he has to go longer than three or four innings to give the Giants a shot.

It also helps that the Reds and Giants are two of baseball's top 3 OVER teams this season. The Reds are 26-18-1 in overs (59.1%), while the Giants are 25-18-1 (58.1%).

With great hitting conditions and two pitchers who have gotten rocked as of late, I expect 9.5 to be a fairly easy number to hit and eventually pass.

LEAN: OVER 9.5 (-105)

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