Giants vs. Rockies Prediction and Odds for Sunday, August 21 (Take Advantage of Inflated Total)

The San Francisco Giants' typical warts are on full display in this four-game losing streak. They've scored just nine runs total in that stretch, though the lineup hopes to turn things around against Kyle Freeland and the Colorado Rockies this afternoon.

Freeland has a 6.19 ERA this month after compiling a 5.59 figure in July. He's been poor at home this season but did throw a quality start at Coors Field against these Giants back in May.

Jakob Junis gets the call for San Francisco after limiting Arizona to one run over seven strong innings in his best start since returning from injury. Junis threw four shutout innings against the Rockies last month and the Giants are 6-3 in his last nine starts.

Can San Francisco keep its slim playoff hopes alive with a critical win or will Colorado earn a sweep?

Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook as we dive into this Giants vs Rockies matchup:

Giants vs Rockies Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Giants -1.5 (+115)
• Rockies +1.5 (-140)

Moneyline:

• Giants: -122
• Rockies: +112

Total:

• 11.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Giants vs Rockies Prediction and Pick

On paper, the Giants should have the upper hand. They rank 11th in OPS against left-handed pitchers over the last three weeks and Kyle Freeland is really struggling at home, with a terrible 6.00 ERA at home.

That being said, Freeland's last six home starts have come against stellar competition. He's faced the Dodgers and Padres twice along with matchups against the Cardinals and Braves. What a murderer's row! San Francisco, as much as I like the Bay, is more content to leave the murderer's in Alcatraz than bring them to the ballpark.

Thus, I think Freeland should have a strong performance. He'll relish the opportunity to face a weaker lineup, especially one that's terrible with runners in scoring position.

But I think Junis should fare well too, as he's been unlucky in recent weeks. In August, here are Junis' four pitches alongside the actual batting average and expected batting average against each:

• Slider - .250 BA - .209 xBA

• Sinker - .385 BA - .282 xBA

• Changeup - .429 BA - .233 xBA

• Cutter - .167 BA - .161 xBA

Batters have a higher actual batting average than expected one against every pitch, so we can logically predict positive regression moving forward.

Because I believe in both pitchers today, I see value on the under. It's 5-0-1 in the Giants' last six games and 5-2-1 in the Rockies' last eight as home underdogs. Look for Freeland and Junis to limit each lineup in a low-scoring affair.

Pick: Under 11.5 (-120)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.