Gonzaga vs. Duke Prediction and Odds: Can Zags Dominate Again?

The No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs proved once again that they are a forced to be reckon with, beating No. 2 UCLA 83-63 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Now the Bulldogs turn their attention to No. 5 Duke, who has potential No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft Paolo Banchero.

Duke has the size to give the Gonzaga frontcourt of Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren issues, but will the Blue Devils be able to stay close given that they are full of freshman talent that may need some more time to gel on the floor?

Before we handicap the matchup further, here are the odds, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Gonzaga vs. Duke Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Gonzaga: -8 (-110)
• Duke: +8 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Gonzaga:-340
• Duke: +260

Total:

• 153.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Gonzaga vs. Duke Prediction and Pick

While the number seems attractive for backing Duke, I can't get there. Not right now, not with how the Zags are playing.

Gonzaga is humming on offense, No. 1 in KenPom's offensive efficiency metric. Not only are they posting a 62% effective field goal percentage, they are grabbing more than a third of available offensive rebounds. So even when they miss, they are likely getting another try and scoring then.

While Duke has great size with the likes of Banchero as a stretch four and seven footer Mark Williams on the block, I can't see the Blue Devils finding much success inside against Holmgren's rim protection, nor holding the Zags off the glass. The No. 1 recruit in the country was generating havoc in the paint in the win over UCLA and Duke is an offense dependent on scoring inside.

More than 56% of Duke's points are coming from two pointers ad the team is shooting just 33% from beyond the arc. This may spell trouble against Gonzaga's offense that is firing on all cylinders.

I do think the Blue Devils are better suited to hang with the Bulldogs than UCLA was earlier this week, but ultimately this Gonzaga team is too polished at the moment I can't envision they keep this one too close.

LEAN: Gonzaga -8 (-110)