Gonzaga vs. St. Mary's Prediction, Odds and Key Players for West Coast Conference Final (Lay it With Bulldogs)
By Reed Wallach
Two bitter rivals meet in the WCC Tournament Finals on Tuesday night in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Gonzaga and St. Mary’s each figure to be mid-major threats to make a run in the 2024 NCAA Tournament, but first must settle its season series with a conference title on the line after the road team won each of the two meetings this season.
These have been two of the hottest teams in the country, but is there a betting angle to take for this Tuesday night showdown?
Here’s our full betting preview for the WCC Tournament Finals:
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St. Mary’s vs. Gonzaga Odds, Spread and Total
St. Mary’s vs. Gonzaga Betting Trends
- St. Mary’s is 3-0 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog this season
- Each team is 6-4 ATS over the last 10 games
- Gonzaga has gone OVER in 14 of 24 games as a favorite
St. Mary’s vs. Gonzaga How to Watch
- Date: Tuesday, March 12th
- Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
- Venue: Orleans Arena
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN
- St. Mary’s: 25-6
- Gonzaga: 25-7
St. Mary’s vs. Gonzaga Key Players to Watch
St. Mary’s
Mitchell Saxen: The Gaels big man is going to be tasked with out-playing Graham Ike, which wasn’t the case in the second meeting of the year at St. Mary’s. Saxen had 13 points and five rebounds, but had four turnovers and allowed Ike to put up a double-double of 24 points and 10 rebounds. How will the rubber match go?
Gonzaga
Graham Ike: Ike is playing his best ball at the right time, but had a quiet semifinal game against San Francisco, scoring only 10 points on 36% shooting. Can he play similar to how he did two Saturdays ago and be the antidote to St. Mary’s stifling drop coverage defense?
St. Mary’s vs. Gonzaga Prediction and Pick
I’m going to back the Bulldogs to take care of business and win the WCC title. The big difference between the Gaels win in Spokane weeks ago and the second meeting was the loss of wing defender Joshua Jefferson, who scored 16 points and grabbed 11 rebounds in the 64-62 on February 3rd.
Without Jefferson, the SMC defense drops by more than .11 points per possession this season, and the red-hot Gonzaga offense can get into the paint with more ease on secondary actions.
The Bulldogs offense getting into the teeth of the Gaels defense will make life much easier for the rim-reliant group that wants to play through Ike, who has been on a tear since the start of February.
While St. Mary’s will play far better than its sloppy play to end the year in the regular season finale against the Zags, the team turned it over on more than 20% of its possessions, I believe the defensive shortcomings without Jefferson are too pronounced for them to keep it close.
I believe Gonzaga wins and covers en route to another WCC title.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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