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Gonzaga vs. UCLA Prediction and Odds: Value on Zags

By Reed Wallach

Nov 13, 2021; Spokane, Washington, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Drew Timme (2)
Nov 13, 2021; Spokane, Washington, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Drew Timme (2) / James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
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Gonzaga and UCLA meet in Las Vegas, Nevada in a rematch of last year's classic Final Four matchup.

There are some new faces on each roster, but also several key contributors back, such as National Player of the Year frontrunner Drew Timme for Gonzaga and sharpshooting Johnny Juzang for UCLA.

Both of these teams have had high level matchups on their home floor already with the Zags decimating Texas by 12 while the Bruins had to rally to knock off Villanova in overtime.

How should we handicap No. 1 vs. No. 2? First, here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook.

Gonzaga vs. UCLA Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Gonzaga: -7 (-110)
  • UCLA: +7 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Gonzaga: -290
  • UCLA: +230

Total: 155 (Over -110/Under -110)

Gonzaga vs. UCLA Prediction and Pick

I have been on the record saying that UCLA is closer to the tenth best team in the country than the first, which is where the polls have them (which isn't predictive of anything).

While the Bruins have beaten a high quality opponent in Villanova, it took a late game flurry to erase a double digit deficit to win in OT. I believe they are set to struggle against the Zags motion based offense that has the likes of freshman big man Chet Holmgren and the top post threat in the nation in Timme.

UCLA isn't going to have an answer in the post for Timme, especially with Cody Riley still on the mend with an injury. I don't see the Bruins isolation heavy offense outweighing the Zags offense. The Bruins are playing faster this season, 112th in adjusted tempo this season which is much faster than 341st last season, but I can't see them outlasting Mark Few's offense in a track meet.

Juzang, Jaime Jaquez, and Jules Bernard must go nuclear from three to keep the Bruins inside this number, which is certainly possible, but I'm going to bank on the Zags to cover this number and bring UCLA back down to Earth. This team is overvalued from last season's Final Four run.

I also lean with the over but 155 is sky high, so that's just a lean, but I will be looking to play the live over if it drops below 150 if the team's start out slow with a big game feel around the matchup.

LEAN: Gonzaga -7, LIVE OVER BELOW 150

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