Grambling vs. Purdue Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NCAA Tournament First Round (Take the Over)

Purdue is back in the NCAA Tournament as a No. 1 seed one year after a historic upset to No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson last season. The Boilermakers are out for revenge and are trying to dispel the doubters after three consecutive March Madness upsets to double-digit seeds. 

Grambling got itself into the 64-team field with a thrilling 88-81 overtime win over Montana State in the First Four Wednesday night. Can they hang inside the big number on Friday afternoon in Indianapolis? Here’s the betting breakdown of the first-round matchup with a best bet. 

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Grambling vs. Purdue Odds, Spread and Total

Grambling vs. Purdue Betting Trends

• Grambling is 18-14 ATS this season
• Purdue is 16-15-2 ATS this season
• Grambling is 11-8 ATS as an underdog this season
• Purdue is 14-15-2 ATS as a favorite this season
• The OVER is 16-16 in Grambling games this season
• The OVER is 22-11 in Purdue games this season 

Grambling vs. Purdue How to Watch

• Date: Friday, March 22 
• Game time: 7:25 p.m. EST
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
• How to watch (TV): TBS
• Grambling record: 21-14
• Purdue record: 29-4

Grambling vs. Purdue Key Players to Watch

Grambling

Antwan Burnett: The 6-foot-5 sophomore forward is one of four double-digit scorers in the Tigers’ lineup and leads the team in rebounds. Burnett, who is shooting 46.3% from the field, poured in 18 points and grabbed 5 rebounds in the overtime win over Montana State Wednesday night. That came after struggling in the SWAC Tournament when Burnett shot just 7-of-25 from the field over three games. 

Purdue 

Lance Jones: A Southern Illinois transfer, Jones is a new wrinkle on a Purdue team that is better than the bunch of Boilermakers that lost historically in last year’s NCAA Tournament. Jones averages 12.2 points per game and leads Purdue in 3-pointers this season (69). Jones will try to find his rhythm from deep in this bracket compared to the Big Ten Tournament when he combined to go just 1-for-8 from downtown in two games. 

Grambling vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick 

This isn’t the same Purdue squad that lost to a No. 16 seed last year. This season, the Boilermakers are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation. Purdue ranks No. 2 in the nation from beyond the arc, though the Boilermakers are picky in terms of when they attack from the perimeter.

Only 35% of Purdue’s shot attempts are from 3-point range, the 246th-highest rate in the nation. They can take advantage of the perimeter in this matchup against a Grambling squad that is No. 204 in the country in defending 3s, per KenPom. 

Grambling plays at a slow pace and doesn’t take advantage of its possessions. The Tigers are No. 316 in tempo and have been one of the luckiest (No. 5) teams in the country, according to KenPom. The luck runs out Friday for a Tigers team that doesn’t take advantage of its limited possessions. Grambling ranks No. 268 in effective field goal percentage and No. 296 in 2-point shooting. They’ll face a Purdue defense that obviously has a great presence in the paint with Zach Edey altering shots and ranking top-50 in the nation in defending the perimeter.

Grambling scores 53.5% of its points from the 2-point range and Purdue has an overwhelming size advantage to dominate from inside the arc. Purdue's offensive advantage is so grand that the Boilermakers should be able to score at will. Instead of laying the big number, go with the over. Purdue will pull away and Grambling should be able to help out enough on the offensive end with the game out of hand in the second half.

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Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.