Grand Canyon vs. Alabama Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NCAA Tournament Second Round

No. 12 seed Grand Canyon storms in the second round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament after beating No. 5 seed St. Mary’s, setting up an intriguing Round of 32 matchup against No. 4 Alabama. 

The Crimson Tide, one of the most proficient offenses in the country, will take on elite mid-major Grand Canyon with a spot in the Sweet 16 on the line. 

Can the underdog hang around yet again and make a surprise appearance in the second weekend of the tournament, or will Alabama outclass the competition. 

Here’s our betting preview for Sunday’s matchup

Grand Canyon vs. Alabama Odds, Spread and Total

Alabama vs. Grand Canyon Betting Trends

• Grand Canyon is 3-0 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog this season
• Alabama is 3-7 ATS over the last 10 games
• Grand Canyon is 19-14 ATS this season
• Alabama has gone OVER in 24 of 32 games this season

Grand Canyon vs. Alabama How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, March 24
• Game Time: 7:10 PM EST
• Venue: Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena
• How to Watch (TV): TBS
• Grand Canyon Record: 30-4
• Alabama Record: 22-11

Grand Canyon vs. Alabama Key Players to Watch

Grand Canyon

Tyon Grant-Foster: Grant-Foster is fresh off 22 points with seven rebounds as he navigated the elite St. Mary’s defense, helping the Antelopes advance to the Round of 32. One of the most prolific scorers in the mid-major ranks, averaging nearly 20 points per game, Grant-Foster will look for another big outing against a high octane Alabama offense. 

Alabama

Mark Sears: Sears’ numbers look out of a video game. He is averaging 21 points per game while shooting about 51% form the field, 43% from beyond the arc and over 85% from the free throw line. After a 30-point effort against Charleston, how will he fare against a tougher Grand Canyon defense? 

Grand Canyon vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick

I love this matchup for Grand Canyon and an upset is very much on the table. 

Grand Canyon is an elite defense, long and able to run teams off the three-point line and also shut off the interior. The team is 59th in opponent 3-point rate while also being a top five defense in the country in field goal percentage allowed at the rim, per Haslametrics. 

Of course, no team is more focused on shooting 3s and layups as Alabama under head coach Nate Oats. The team is 19th in 3-point rate and is focused on getting all the way to the cup, and they do it well, ninth in effective field goal percentage. 

I believe that Grand Canyon can slow down the team’s preferred offense, similar in a way to Florida, who beat Alabama twice in three games this season, one of the longer, more analytically sound defenses in the SEC. 

Meanwhile, keep an eye on the undisciplined Alabama defense that is 141st in effective field goal percentage 282nd in turnover rate and 236th in defensive rebounding percentage, per KenPom. Most importantly, the team is 320th in opponent free throw rate. Grand Canyon has several ball handlers that are great at initiating contact, third in the country in free throw rate while ranking 32nd in offensive rebounding rate. 

Against an Alabama team off a monster effort that is 306th in consistency rating, per Haslametrics, I’ll take the more reliable bunch in the Antelopes, who are 13th in the same metric. 

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