Grizzlies vs. Pacers Prediction and Odds (Grizzlies Cover in High-Scoring Contest)

The 47-22 Memphis Grizzlies bring a three-game winning streak into Indiana as they take on the 23-46 Pacers tonight at 7:00 p.m EST.

Indiana beat the Grizzlies 109-107 back in October but much has changed. Memphis finds themselves as the best spread bet in the NBA this year while the Pacers have completely revamped their roster in a lost season.

Despite the overhaul, Indiana has shown some life since the trade deadline and have covered the spread in two straight and the Grizzlies have failed to cover in three of their last four.

With Ja Morant questionable for tonight, can the Pacers get a second win over the upstart Grizz or will Memphis take advantage of poor defense to cruise?

Let's take a look at the odds via WynnBET to help us find some value:

Grizzlies vs Pacers Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Grizzlies -7 (-110)
• Pacers +7 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Grizzlies: -310
• Pacers: +250

Total:

• 234 (Over -110/Under -110)

Grizzlies vs Pacers Prediction and Pick

Even if Ja doesn't play, I love this spot for Memphis. They're just 4-6 against the spread (ATS) over their last ten, cooling off from their world-beating run, but that's giving us value against a Pacers defense that ranks 27th in rating over the last 15 games.

The Pacers have covered the spread in their last two games against the Spurs and Hawks, two bottom-10 defenses. But prior to those matchups, Indiana had only covered in four of 15 and two of those covers were also against bad defenses. Memphis happens to be very good defensively, ranking eighth on the year in rating and led by Defensive Player of the Year Candidate Jaren Jackson Jr.

When Indiana plays good defenses, they don't cover. They've turned their identity into that of a run-n-gun, score-a-lot team but their offense isn't good enough to make up for their ineptitude on defense. So when they play a defense that can stop them, they're toast.

Tyus Jones is more than capable of holding it down for Memphis if Morant doesn't play, but if he does play then we're getting unbelievable value at this number. It can only rise before tip so I'm all over the Grizzlies.

But I'm also on the over, which has been a go-to bet for me when either of these squads play. It's 12-5 in the Grizzlies' last 17 and 15-5 in Indiana's last 20. Both teams have great shooters and play at a top-15 pace in the league, so I like those trends to continue. As a bonus, perimeter defensive stalwart Malcolm Brogdon is questionable for the Pacers. I'd expect the line to tick a few points up if he's ruled out, so let's lock this in early.

Pick: Grizzlies -7 (-110) and Over 234 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.