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Guardians vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Odds for Saturday, August 13 (McKenzie is Becoming an Ace)

By Joe Summers

Triston McKenzie has a 1.72 ERA since the start of July
Triston McKenzie has a 1.72 ERA since the start of July / David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
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Triston McKenzie rebounded from a pair of mediocre outings to limit the Astros to two hits over eight shutout innings. Now, he'll try to tame another fiery lineup as the Cleveland Guardians take on the Toronto Blue Jays.

Since the start of July, McKenzie has a 1.72 ERA, allowing just 27 hits over 47.2 innings while striking out 48 batters.

He's leveled up, and looks like the ace of Cleveland's rotation.

Toronto turns to Mitch White after he allowed three runs to the Twins in 4.2 innings during his debut for the Blue Jays. He's got underwhelming advanced metrics though, and White's team is 3-6 in his last nine starts.

Can White turn things around or will McKenzie stay scorching-hot for Cleveland?

Let's take a gander at the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help analyze this Guardians vs Blue Jays matchup:

Guardians vs Blue Jays Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Guardians +1.5 (-200)
  • Blue Jays -1.5 (+165)

Moneyline:

  • Guardians +108
  • Blue Jays -118

Total:

  • 8 (OVER -120/Under +100)

Guardians vs Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

This is a potential playoff preview and I'm thrilled to see how the series unfolds. That being said, I see clear value in backing McKenzie and the Guardians.

McKenzie looks like a man possessed since the end of June, and his numbers are among the best in MLB over that stretch:

  • 47.2 innings pitched
  • 1.72 ERA
  • 27 hits allowed
  • 2 home runs allowed
  • 12 walks
  • 48 strikeouts
  • 4 games with 0 earned runs

That'll play! He's increased his curveball usage throughout the season to fantastic results, as he's got a 48.1% whiff rate with the pitch in August. Opponents hit just .179 against his fastball in July and are hitting .087 this month, so he's finding success with his go-to pitch as well. Plus, McKenzie has a knack for stepping up in big moments:

Compare that to Mitch White, who has an expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) above 4.81 in three of his last four starts. A 4.81 xFIP would be the third-worst among all qualified pitchers on the season, so these are two starters in vastly different places right now.

Look for the Guardians to improve to 8-2 in their last 10 games on the road and 9-3 in McKenzie's last dozen starts.

Pick: Guardians ML (+108)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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