When is Kevin Gausman going to start getting his due?
In his first season with the Blue Jays, all the 31-year old right-hander has done is lead the American League in wins-above-replacement (WAR) for pitchers at 4.4; and be a dominant force at the top of the Blue Jays' rotation. In fact, Gausman's fWAR (Fangraphs WAR) is tied with the NL Cy Young favorite (-280) in Miami Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara, but Gausman's odds to win are all the way down at +7000. What gives?
Gausman's Jays look to take the series this afternoon at the Rogers Centre against another tough right-hander in Cleveland Guardians ace Shane Bieber. The veteran and former Cy Young winner has been terrific of late; allowing just 3 ER in his last three starts (20 IP) combined.
Here's a look at today's odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook:
Guardians vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line and Total
- Guardians +1.5 (-170)
- Blue Jays -1.5 (+140)
- Guardians +129
- Blue Jays -139
- 7.5 (OVER -105 | UNDER -115)
Guardians vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
I'm backing both pitchers to dominate in the early going before the bullpens have a chance to screw things up.
Gausman got off to a rough start post-All-Star break, allowing eight earned runs in 9.2 innings in his first two outings. Since August, however, he's been nails; working on a 14 inning scoreless streak; with 14 strikeouts and just one walk in two road appearances vs. the Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins. He's also faced the Guardians already this year back in mid-May, going 6.1 innings with only one earned run and five strikeouts.
Meanwhile, Bieber has also looked terrific after a rough outing vs. the Chicago White Sox after the break. Since allowing six earned runs in six innings in Chicago back on July 24; he's gone, 7,6, and 7 innings in his last three starts, striking out eight batters in all three games.
With both starters locked in, and both offenses a little bit inconsistent of late, I'll back the two studs on the mound in the early going.
LEAN: F5 UNDER 4 (-125)
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