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Guardians vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Odds for Sunday, August 14 (Back Bieber and Gausman to Cruise Early)

By Ben Heisler

Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Shane Bieber has only allowed three earned runs over his last 20 innings pitched.
Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Shane Bieber has only allowed three earned runs over his last 20 innings pitched. / Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
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When is Kevin Gausman going to start getting his due?

In his first season with the Blue Jays, all the 31-year old right-hander has done is lead the American League in wins-above-replacement (WAR) for pitchers at 4.4; and be a dominant force at the top of the Blue Jays' rotation. In fact, Gausman's fWAR (Fangraphs WAR) is tied with the NL Cy Young favorite (-280) in Miami Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara, but Gausman's odds to win are all the way down at +7000. What gives?

Gausman's Jays look to take the series this afternoon at the Rogers Centre against another tough right-hander in Cleveland Guardians ace Shane Bieber. The veteran and former Cy Young winner has been terrific of late; allowing just 3 ER in his last three starts (20 IP) combined.

Here's a look at today's odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook:

Guardians vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Guardians +1.5 (-170)
  • Blue Jays -1.5 (+140)

Moneyline:

  • Guardians +129
  • Blue Jays -139

Total:

  • 7.5 (OVER -105 | UNDER -115)

Guardians vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

I'm backing both pitchers to dominate in the early going before the bullpens have a chance to screw things up.

Gausman got off to a rough start post-All-Star break, allowing eight earned runs in 9.2 innings in his first two outings. Since August, however, he's been nails; working on a 14 inning scoreless streak; with 14 strikeouts and just one walk in two road appearances vs. the Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins. He's also faced the Guardians already this year back in mid-May, going 6.1 innings with only one earned run and five strikeouts.

Meanwhile, Bieber has also looked terrific after a rough outing vs. the Chicago White Sox after the break. Since allowing six earned runs in six innings in Chicago back on July 24; he's gone, 7,6, and 7 innings in his last three starts, striking out eight batters in all three games.

With both starters locked in, and both offenses a little bit inconsistent of late, I'll back the two studs on the mound in the early going.

LEAN: F5 UNDER 4 (-125)

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