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Guardians vs. Dodgers Prediction and Odds for Friday, June 17 (Should L.A Be Heavy Favorites against Cleveland?)

By Joe Summers

Jose Ramirez and the Guardians are scorching hot ahead of their series with the Dodgers
Jose Ramirez and the Guardians are scorching hot ahead of their series with the Dodgers / Isaiah Vazquez/Clarkson Creative/GettyImages
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One of the hottest teams in baseball takes on one of the best teams in baseball tonight as the 39-23 Los Angeles Dodgers host the 32-27 Cleveland Guardians at 10:10 PM EST.

Zach Plesac starts for Cleveland. While he's 2-4 with a 4.70 ERA, he's pitched well recently with three straight quality starts.

Los Angeles counters with Clayton Kershaw, who allowed two runs in four innings in his first start back from the Injured List last week. He's ramping back up to speed but was dominant before his injury.

Can Kershaw regain that early-season form or will the Guardians stay hot behind Plesac?

To find the value, let's take a peak at the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook for this Guardians vs Dodgers matchup:

Guardians vs Dodgers Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Guardians +1.5 (+110)
  • Dodgers -1.5 (-130)

Moneyline:

  • Guardians: +237
  • Dodgers: -260

Total:

  • 8.0 (Over -110/Under -110)

Guardians vs Dodgers Prediction and Pick

If you squinted from a distance, you'd think Cleveland was a World Series favorite and not Los Angeles. They're 13-3 over their last 16 while the Dodgers are 9-7 over the same span.

On a normal day, the Dodgers are rightly priced as -260 favorites. But this is no normal day. Clayton Kershaw is working up to a full pitch count and looked like a guy coming off injury last week. Cleveland is 12th in OPS against left-handed pitchers over the last three weeks and strike out at the lowest rate in MLB. With wind blowing out to center field, if Kershaw makes any mistakes then the Guardians will make him pay.

The Dodgers can certainly make Zach Plesac pay for his mistakes too, but he's making fewer of them lately. After struggling with command all year, he's issued zero walks in his last three starts.

But more importantly, something may be wrong with the Los Angeles lineup. They're seventh in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last three weeks after leading the league most of the year. Things are getting worse too, as they've averaged two runs per game in their previous five.

I think the Dodgers should be favored, but not by this much. Cleveland has resounding advantages in the bullpen and defensively. Their lineup is hitting better between the two and with Kershaw still shaking off rust, we can't say for certain how large Los Angeles' advantage is on the mound.

Los Angeles is 6-9 over their last 15 as a favorite while the Guardians covered the run line in four of their last five as an underdog.

I'll take a shot on Cleveland to pull off the upset in a huge test for their ability to keep their strong play going.

Pick: Guardians ML (+237)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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