Guardians vs. Mariners Prediction and Odds for Sunday, August 28 (Guardians Win Low-Scoring Finale)
By Joe Summers
Both the Cleveland Guardians and Seattle Mariners narrowly hold onto playoff spots as they conclude their four-game series today. Cleveland sits three games up in the AL Central, while Seattle holds a 1.5-game lead over Baltimore for the final AL Wild Card spot.
Aaron Civale looks to continue a strong stretch for Cleveland in which he's allowed two or fewer runs in five consecutive starts. He's got a 2.03 ERA in that stretch with strong underlying numbers, giving the Guardians' rotation a huge boost if he can keep it going.
Seattle turns to Robbie Ray, behind whom its won three straight. Ray has a 2.08 ERA in August, though he's struggled with command of late and surrendered a home run in three consecutive outings.
Can Cleveland even the series or will Seattle earn a critical home victory?
Let's take a peak at the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook before we jump into this Guardians vs Mariners series finale:
Guardians vs Mariners Odds, Run Line and Total
Guardians vs Mariners Prediction and Pick
The under hit in each of the first three games of the series as both pitching staffs are frustrating these lineups. There's reason to believe we'll have another close, low-scoring game today with Aaron Civale and Robbie Ray going to war.
Aaron Civale has a 3.69 FIP, 3.86 xFIP while owning the highest strikeout rate of his career.
— Andres Gimenez MVP SZN (@Kwan4ROY) August 25, 2022
In 3 starts since returning, he owns a 2.45 ERA, 1.69 FIP, and a 11.05 K/9
Underrated.
Civale has quietly been excellent for Cleveland, allowing four hits or fewer in four straight outings. The Mariners rank 20th in OPS against right-handed pitchers this month, so I like Civale's chances to continue pitching well.
Robbie Ray looks great too, but he's had issues this year against offenses that put the ball into play. Basically, if Ray isn't generating strikeouts then he's not having a very good day. Well, the Guardians happen to strikeout at the lowest rate in MLB, so I think they'll be able to scratch some runs across the board with Civale blanks Seattle.
I like two wagers in this matchup: the under and Guardians moneyline. The under is 6-0 in Civale's last six starts and 7-2-1 in Cleveland's last 10 overall. I love the under, but I can't help but side with the Guardians at plus odds here as well. Cleveland is a remarkable 14-5 in its last 19 as road underdogs, including four straight wins.
Give me the Guardians in a low-scoring game to wrap up a sensational series.
Pick: Under 7.0 (+100) and Guardians (+134)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.