We have a revenge game of sorts in San Diego on Tuesday as San Diego Padres righty, Mike Clevinger, will face his former team, the Cleveland Guardians.
Clevinger (4-4, 3.63 ERA) was traded by the Guardians to San Diego a few seasons back, and now he can stick it to his former team by handing it a loss with the AL Central division crown very much up in the air.
Clevinger will be opposed by Aaron Civale (2-5, 5.63 ERA), who has turned his season around after a rough start.
Here are the odds from DraftKings for this interleague battle:
Guardians vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total
- Guardians +1.5 (-165)
- Padres -1.5 (+140)
- Guardians: +130
- Padres: -150
- 8 (Over -110/Under -110)
Guardians vs. Padres Prediction and Pick
Even though Civale’s ERA still doesn’t look great this season, his Fielding Independent Pitching is all the way down to 3.72, and it has been significantly lower than his ERA all season. For comparison Clevinger enters this game with a FIP of 4.13.
Since May 20, Civale has been great for Cleveland, making eight starts and pitching to a 2.97 ERA. The team is just 4-4 in those games, but it seems like he is due to positively regress even more as the season goes on.
Despite the Padres winning three of his four starts in August, Clevinger hasn’t pitched his best, posting a 4.29 ERA. However, his worst start came against the Los Angeles Dodgers, and there isn’t an offense in baseball that can really compare to that squad.
Both of these teams are top 12 in the league in bullpen ERA (Cleveland sixth, San Diego 12th), so I think this is actually a spot to take the UNDER.
If Civale continues his resurgence he should be able to match Clevinger before handing it over to the pen. Even with star power on offense on both sides, eight is a reasonable total to grab the UNDER on, and if you can get it with the hook, even better.
Lean: UNDER 8 (-110)
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.