Guardians vs. Rays Prediction and Odds for Friday, July 29 (Take Advantage of a Charitable Total)

The Rays sure do enjoy the comfy confines of Tropicana Field. After a rough road trip in which they lost five of six, Tampa Bay now sends Jeffrey Springs to the mound to open a homestand.

Tampa has a 31-18 record at home, where Springs has a 1.76 ERA. The Guardians' struggles against left-handed pitchers are well documented, although, they're set to start the ever-reliable Shane Bieber to pitch today.

Bieber stumbled in a pair of starts against the White Sox, but against all other opponents has five consecutive quality starts.

Can Cleveland finally score some runs against a southpaw or will Tampa Bay keep rolling at home?

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help find the value in this Guardians vs Rays matchup:

Guardians vs Rays Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Guardians -1.5 (+155)
• Rays +1.5 (-230)

Moneyline:

• Guardians: +103
• Rays: -113

Total:

• 6.5 (Over -125/Under +105)

Guardians vs Rays Prediction and Pick

This line feels low.

I know the Guardians are terrible against left-handed pitchers, but Jeffrey Springs is due for some negative regression. He's got a 3.73 expected ERA and just a 2.50 actual ERA, so he's been lucky to this point. We're already starting to see that play out, too.

After allowing more than two runs just once in his first eight starts, Springs surrendered at least three in three of his last four, compiling a 5.44 ERA in that stretch.

That being said, the real reason to feel comfortable backing the over is the Rays' bats at home against Shane Bieber. Tampa ranks eighth in OPS against right-handed pitchers in July and Bieber has a 4.48 ERA over his last seven starts.

The over has hit in four straight games in which the Rays were a home favorite and is 8-1-1 in the Guardians' last 10 as road underdogs. Trust the trends to continue and let's take advantage of a very charitable line.

Pick: Over 6.5 (-125)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.