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Guardians vs. Royals Prediction and Odds for Saturday, July 9 (McKenzie Gets Cleveland Back on Track)

By Joe Summers

Triston McKenzie held the Yankees to just one hit over seven shutout innings in his last start
Triston McKenzie held the Yankees to just one hit over seven shutout innings in his last start / Nick Cammett/GettyImages
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The 40-40 Cleveland Guardians dropped four straight entering this series but have a chance to correct their slide against the 30-51 Kansas City Royals at 4:10 PM EST.

Triston McKenzie was spectacular in his last start, holding the Yankees to one hit over seven scoreless innings. He struggled mightily in his two outings before that but may have found his footing against New York.

Kansas City counters with Jonathan Heasley, who also rebounded from a pair of rough starts with six strong innings against the Astros last week. Walks have been a problem for Heasley though, and he's got a poor 5.40 ERA at home.

Which pitcher will carry the momentum from their last start into this afternoon? Let's take a peak at from consensus sportsbooks to help pick a winner in this AL Central matchup.

Guardians vs Royals Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Guardians -1.5 (+130)
  • Royals +1.5 (-150)

Moneyline:

  • Guardians: -125
  • Royals: +105

Total:

  • 8.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Guardians vs Royals Prediction and Pick

I know the Guardians are slumping, but there's no chance they should be such small favorites against the Royals, even on the road. Jonathan Heasley has shown flashes of excellence, but his inconsistent command leaves him vulnerable to big innings against capable lineups.

With AL MVP candidate Jose Ramirez leading the way, Cleveland certainly has a capable lineup. Heasley's 5.39 expected ERA is among the worst marks in MLB, and his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile is discouraging:

The Guardians have five straight wins over Kansas City and I love the value on Cleveland to make it six in-a-row today. They have a significant bullpen advantage over the Royals too, giving their lineup a perfect opportunity to explode in a big way.

And that's before you get to Triston McKenzie, who was spectacular against the Yankees in his last start. He allowed just one hit and issued one walk, and if he can shut down New York then he can certainly shut down Kansas City.

Give me the Guardians to get back on track with a much-needed road win at a short price.

Pick: Guardians (-125)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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