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Guardians vs. Tigers Prediction and Odds for Thursday, August 11 (Guardians Get Revenge on Hill)

By Joe Summers

Amed Rosario and the Guardians struggled in Garrett Hill's MLB debut but should find more success this time
Amed Rosario and the Guardians struggled in Garrett Hill's MLB debut but should find more success this time / Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
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The Cleveland Guardians finally have a share of first place in the AL Central and I don't see them loosening their grip.

Zach Plesac starts today against the Detroit Tigers and although he's struggled of late, I'm optimistic about his performance. His underlying metrics indicate he's been unlucky in his recent road starts, while the Detroit Tigers have the second-worst OPS against right-handed pitchers at home since the All-Star break.

Detroit turns to Garrett Hill for his seventh career start. Hill limited these Guardians to one run in his first outing, but things have gone down...hill since. He's got a 6.07 ERA since that debut and the Tigers lost four of his last five starts.

Can Plesac get back on track or will Hill have a second strong start against Cleveland?

Here are the consensus odds to help pick a winner in this Guardians vs Tigers matchup:

Guardians vs Tigers Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Guardians -1.5 (+100)
  • Tigers +1.5 (-120)

Moneyline:

  • Guardians: -173
  • Tigers: +144

Total:

  • 8.5 (Over -112/Under -109)

Guardians vs Tigers Prediction and Pick

The Guardians are surging, winning five of seven on the road with the seventh-highest OPS against right-handed pitchers. Garrett Hill got the best of Cleveland's lineup in his MLB debut, but I don't see that happening again.

Hill has poor command, and his 6.44 expected ERA is an atrocious number. In every start, Hill's had a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 4.71 or worse, with three starts being over 5.31. For reference, a 4.71 FIP would be the fourth-worst among all qualified pitchers.

Plesac, meanwhile, has been a bit unlucky. In his last four road starts, he's posted a FIP under 3.31 three times. That'd be good for the 13th-best mark in MLB, just ahead of 2021 Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes and just behind 2022 Cy Young-favorite Justin Verlander.

Pretty decent company, in my opinion. Back Cleveland to get revenge on Hill as Plesac impresses in a bounce-back performance.

Pick: Guardians -1.5 (+100)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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