Guardians vs Twins Prediction and Odds for May 13 (Guardians With Value Against Struggling Twins Lineup)

Joe Summers
Josh Naylor of the Guardians
Josh Naylor of the Guardians / Quinn Harris/GettyImages
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The 18-14 Minnesota Twins bring a three-game losing streak into their series opener with the 15-15 Cleveland Guardians tonight at 8:10 PM EST.

Despite the losing streak, the Twins are still 14-6 over their last 20 contests and will send Sonny Gray to the mound. Gray has compiled a 3.48 ERA through three starts and is coming off four scoreless innings against Oakland.

Cleveland has won eight of 11 and has Aaron Civale on the bump today. Civale has been a disaster this season, amassing a 9.45 ERA through five starts while surrendering 16 earned runs over his last 12.2 innings.

Can Civale build some momentum or will the Twins snap their losing streak against their divisional foe?

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET to help find out ahead of this Guardians vs Twins matchup:

Guardians vs Twins Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Guardians +1.5 (-140)
  • Twins -1.5 (+120)

Moneyline:

  • Guardians: +145
  • Twins: -160

Total:

  • 8.0 (Over -120/Under +100)

Guardians vs Twins Prediction and Pick

Aaron Civale has been, in a word, terrible. But his 5.02 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) does imply he's due for some regression from his 9.45 ERA. And he's got a winnable matchup today against a Twins offense that is really struggling.

Minnesota has been shut out twice in their last three games and are averaging a paltry 1.67 runs per game over their previous six. Carlos Correa is on the IL and several other key players are battling nagging injuries, so the Twins won't be at full strength either.

On the other end, Cleveland's lineup has snapped out of a cold slump and is streaking. They're averaging 5.73 runs per game over their last 11 and should continue their strong play against Sonny Gray.

The 32-year-old righty struggles to go deep into games and his 4.76 FIP means he's fortunate to have a 3.48 ERA. Gray ranks in the 15th percentile in barrel percentage and 20th percentile in walk rate, so he's ripe for the picking.

For me, this is an easy call. Civale is due for positive regression while Gray is due for negative regression. Cleveland's lineup is mashing and the Twins is struggling. Getting the Guardians at +145 is a classic buy-low spot on Civale, as we should see improvement from him moving forward.

I'll take a shot on the Guardians at plus odds. Civale, like Bitcoin, is crashing. Will you join me in buying low?

Pick: Guardians +145


Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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