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Guardians vs. Twins Prediction and Odds for Saturday, May 14th (Pitching Mismatch Provides Value on Cleveland)

By Matt De Saro

Cleveland Guardians v Los Angeles Angels
Cleveland Guardians v Los Angeles Angels / Sean M. Haffey/GettyImages
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The Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins battle it out in Game 2 of their three-game weekend series. These rivals are battling for the top spot in the AL Central with the Guardians trailing the Twins by three games entering today. However, both teams have been struggling a bit lately and could both really use this win. 

The Guardians are 3-3 in their last six games while the Twins are 1-3 in their last four. The Twins were shut out twice last week by the Astros before exploding to win the opening game of this series 12-8. The Guardians could take over first place with a series sweep of Minnesota. 

Here are the odds for this game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Guardians: -1.5 (+125)
  • Twins: +1.5 (-150)

Moneyline:

  • Guardians: -126
  • Twins: +116

Total:

  • Total 8.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Guardians vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Shane Bieber will get the start for Cleveland as they try and play their way into the top spot in the division. Beiber is still looking to find his groove this year as he enters with a 4.13 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 32 ⅔ innings. The problem is he appears to be regressing after giving up seven earned runs in 3 ⅓ innings last Saturday against the Blue Jays. The runs are concerning, but I’m more worried about his strikeout to walk ratio of 0:3 in that game. Bieber is a strikeout pitcher and can’t afford many more games like that. 

The Twins look to counter with Devin Smeltzer who is making his first start of the season. Smeltzer is making his first start since Aug. 2020 after he was on the shelf with an elbow injury. In five starts for St. Paul, Smeltzer has a 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 21 innings. He will likely head back to the minors after the spot starts with a few guys coming back from injury next week. 

The fact that Smeltzer has never been a full-time MLB player has me very suspicious of his chances to succeed tonight. In 69 ⅔ career innings, Smeltzer has a 4.26 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Not bad, but still not enough for me to feel like I can trust him to shut down the Guardians tonight. 

Pick: Guardians -126

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE