Guardians vs. Twins Prediction and Odds for Thursday, June 23 (Bet on Offense in AL Central Showdown)

The two top teams in the AL Central finish their midweek series in Minnesota on Thursday.

The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians continue to battle for the division crown this season, and we have another matchup on Thursday that could pay dividends down the stretch of the season. Who has the leg up in the series finale?

Here are the odds from consensus sportsbooks:

Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Total

Run Line:

• Guardians: +1.5 (-145)
• Twins: -1.5 (+125)

Moneyline:

• Guardians: +135
• Twins: -155

Total: 9.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Guardians vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

The Twins are sending out Devin Smeltzer for this game, and the left hander is one of the most fade worthy pitchers in baseball. Smeltzer is facing a Guardians lineup that struggles against southpaws (20th in OPS), but I can't trust him and think Cleveland can find a way to tag him giving his underlying metrics.

Smeltzer has a 3.52 ERA, but his FIP is nearly three runs at high 5.37. He strikes out very few batters, less than five batters per 9 innings, and I don't trust him to go deep into this game. He struggles with walks at times and that has limited his output, he has gone less than five full innings in two of his last three starts.

Meanwhile, Minnesota is top 10 in wRC+ in the month of June and gets the chance to knock around Zach Plesac, who is sporting a 4.41 ERA, and particularly struggles on the road. Plesac has a 5.57 ERA away from home and I don't feel confident about him holding up against a hot Twins lineup.

I don't want to lay it with the Twins so I'll look to the over in what could be a back and forth affair.

LEAN: OVER 9.5

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