Guardians vs. Twins Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, June 22 (Trust Sonny Gray at Home)

The Cleveland Guardians are on fire right now, winning eight of their last 10 games to pull into a tie with the Minnesota Twins atop the AL Central division. 

Now, Cleveland has a chance to take the lead in the division when these two teams face off on Wednesday night. The Guardians will send youngster Triston McKenzie (4-5, 2.96 ERA) to the mound against Sonny Gray (3-1, 2.09 ERA). 

The Guardians’ pitching staff has been fantastic this year, ranking sixth in team ERA, but can it hold down the Minnesota offense for the second straight night?

Here are the odds for this game via WynnBET:  

Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Guardians +1.5 (-165)
• Twins -1.5 (+135)

Moneyline:

• Guardians: +135
• Twins: -145

Total: 

• 8.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Guardians vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

On the surface, this looks like a pretty even pitching matchup, but the advanced numbers for McKenzie paint a much different picture. 

The Guardians righty may have a 2.96 ERA, but his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is nearly two whole runs higher at 4.37. He also ranks in the bottom half of the league in barrel percentage, expected ERA, hard hit percentage and expected slugging percentage against. 

Gray, on the other hand, has been as consistent as they come this season, allowing two or fewer runs in all eight of his starts this season. 

It’s hard to fade Cleveland over this stretch, bu I’m going to side with the better starter in Gray to get things done. 

Lean: Twins ML (-145)

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.