Guardians vs. White Sox Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, May 10 (Guardians Prevail in High-Scoring Contest)
By Joe Summers
After an unbelievable six-run ninth inning propelled Cleveland to a remarkable 12-9 comeback win last night, the 15-14 Guardians hope to stay hot as they take on the 14-14 Chicago White Sox today at 8:10 PM EST.
Chicago was stunned as their six-game winning streak was snapped in dramatic fashion. They'll need to put this loss behind them quickly and have tasked Lucas Giolito with flipping the script. Giolito has a 3.20 ERA and has given up three runs in each of his last two starts, but he's a swing-and-miss machine that ranks in the 98th percentile in strikeout percentage.
The Guardians will counter with Cal Quantrill, who has a quality start in each of his last three outings. Despite a 3.54 ERA, he's struggled with command. Quantrill ranks in the 15th percentile in walk rate, so he'll need to manage the strike zone to keep Cleveland's strong stretch going.
Can the White Sox bounce back from a gut punch last night or will the Guardians notch a fourth consecutive victory?
Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help find some value ahead of this Guardians vs White Sox matchup:
Guardians vs White Sox Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line:
- Guardians +1.5 (-130)
- White Sox -1.5 (+110)
Moneyline:
- Guardians: +162
- White Sox: -177
Total:
- 7.5 (Over -125/Under +105)
Guardians vs White Sox Prediction and Pick
I don't know how the White Sox get over last night's loss in 24 hours. Back-to-back errors in the ninth inning kept the Guardians alive before a 2-out Grand Slam from Josh Naylor tied the game. Then, Chicago loaded the bases in the bottom of the ninth before coming up empty. To say they had their chances is a dramatic understatement, and last night's game was a failure at every level for the team.
Now, they turn around and play the same team a day later? Yeesh, good luck. Cleveland leads the league in OPS against right-handed pitchers and is on fire offensively. The Guardians are averaging 5.9 runs per game over their last 10 contests as they've gone 8-2 in that stretch.
Lucas Giolito's strength comes in generating strikeouts, but the Guardians average the fifth-fewest strikeouts per game. Giolito ranks in the sixth percentile in barrel percentage, so he can be hit hard if you do make contact. Well, Cleveland has a full lineup of guys who can make hard contact. It's a tough matchup for Giolito and while he's had great success against the Guardians in the past, nearly all of his peripheral stats are down this year as he seems to have lost some velocity.
On the other side of things, Cal Quantrill has been serviceable. However, his pitching profile from Baseball Savant is a bit scary:
It's fortunate for Quantrill that the White Sox offense has been rather pathetic. Prior to last night, they were averaging just 2.9 runs per game over their last 11. Chicago ranks 24th in OPS and are even worse at home than on the road.
Cleveland has the bullpen advantage as well, and the White Sox relievers will be exhausted after last night.
Put it altogether and you've got a pair of bets with value. The Guardians are way too hot to be sitting at +162. I'd feel comfortable playing that down to +135. But I also love the over here. It's 7-1 over Cleveland's last eight games and with this pitching matchup and tired bullpens, I think this game clears 7.5 runs with ease.
Pick: Guardians (+162) and Over 7.5 (-125)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.