Heat vs. Celtics NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Playoffs Game 5 (Bet Boston Early)
By Peter Dewey
The Boston Celtics are aiming to close out the Miami Heat after taking two games in a row in Miami to open up a 3-1 series lead.
The Heat simply have lacked the offense they need to beat this Boston team with Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier out, but Boston did lose Kristaps Porzingis to a calf injury in Game 4.
Still, Boston is a massive favorite entering Game 5 and it has been the best home team in the NBA all season long. Does it finish the job on Wednesday?
Here’s a look at the latest odds and my best bet for this playoff matchup:
Heat vs. Celtics Odds, Spread and total
Heat vs. Celtics How to Watch
- Date: Wednesday, March 1
- Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
- Venue: TD Garden
- How to watch (TV): TNT
- Series: Boston leads 3-1
Heat vs. Celtics Injury Reports
Heat Injury Report
- Jimmy Butler – out
- Haywood Highsmith – available
- Terry Rozier – out
- Duncan Robinson – available
- Josh Richardson – out
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. – out
Celtics Injury Report
- Kristaps Porzingis – out
Heat vs. Celtics Key Players to Watch
Miami Heat
Bam Adebayo: With Jimmy Butler out, Adebayo has stepped up in this series, scoring 20 or more points in each of the four games. However, it hasn’t been enough for Miami to get over the hump, as it struggled overall to score in Game 4. After 25 points and 17 rebounds in that matchup, Adebayo could be in line for an even bigger game with Kristaps Porzingis banged up.
Boston Celtics
Al Horford: Porzingis exited with a calf injury in Game 4 and did not return, thrusting veteran Al Horford into a major role. The five-time All-Star responded with seven points and eight rebounds in nearly 34 minutes. He should be relied on heavily not just in Game 5, but the rest of the playoffs.
Heat vs. Celtics Prediction and Pick
Miami simply hasn’t had enough offense to compete in this series outside of Game 2 when it shot the lights out from beyond the arc.
Now, with Jaquez Jr. also ruled out, I don’t see the Heat keeping up, especially early in this game.
With such a big spread, I’m always worried about the underdog picking up a backdoor cover, but we know that Boston is going to put the pedal to the metal in the first half to try and pull away and end this series.
All season long, Boston has been elite against the spread in the first half, covering in Games 3 and 4 to move to 59-26-1 on the season.
We’re going to have to lay eight points with Jayson Tatum and company in this one, but I just don’t see Miami’s offense putting together enough scoring to compete in this game. Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro have played well, but there is a lack of consistent scoring after them in the rotation.
With no fear of Boson resting players in the first half, I think this is the best way to bet on the C’s in this one.
Pick: Celtics First Half -8 (-110)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.