Heat vs. Hawks Prediction and Odds for Game 4 (Bet the Under in Pivotal Matchup)
By Reed Wallach
The Hawks are on the board.
Thanks to Trae Young's heroics in the final seconds of Game 3, the Hawks were able to inch closer to the No. 1 seed Heat with a 111-110 victory. With Kyle Lowry's injury possibly keeping him out for part of this series, can Atlanta even it at 2 in front of their home crowd?
Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook before breaking down Game 4:
Heat vs. Hawks Odds, Spread and Total
Spread:
- Heat: -2 (-110)
- Hawks: +2 (-110)
Moneyline:
- Heat: -135
- Hawks: +112
Total: 221 (Over -110/Under -110)
Heat vs. Hawks Prediction and Pick
I was on the Hawks in Game 3 as I don't see the difference between the two teams and Atlanta's had continued success at home. The Hawks are now 28-14 at home when you factor in the Game 3 win and are top 10 in net rating at State Farm Arena (+5.0), up from -1.7 on the road during the regular season.
It's unknown if Lowry will be available in Game 4 after he left Game 3 early with a hamstring injury. Even if he plays, he will be limited. The Heat were slightly worse on offense with Lowry on the sideline during the regular season.
I don't have a strong opinion on the side, but I'm expecting another close affair. My favorite bet is on the under. Game 1 was a lopsided affair and went way under the total. Game 2 had a ton of late game meaningless fouls that inflated the final score, and still stayed under the closing total of 221.5 (115-105). Game 3 also finished under by a smidge, a 111-110 Hawks win after closing 222.
This has been the third fastest series from a pace perspective, but ShotQuality has assessed that the team's shot profiles over the last two games should have resulted in 3 fewer points in Game 2 and 4 fewer in Game 3.
This total seems to be the ceiling of production for these two offenses, so I'll look to make it four in a row and back the under.
LEAN: UNDER 221
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!