Heisman Trophy Odds: Michael Penix Jr. Odds on Favorite Following Oregon Win
By Reed Wallach
All eyes were on Seattle, Wash. on Saturday afternoon as Michael Penix Jr. engineered a game winning touchdown drive to push Washington into the center of the College Football Playoff picture with its 36-33 win over Oregon.
Penix Jr. was already the slight favorite to win the Heisman Trophy entering this game, but after getting the better of Ducks quarterback Bo Nix -- coupled with second choice Caleb Williams' USC Trojans getting blown out at Notre Dame -- he is now the odds on favorite to win the award.
Here are the updated odds for the Heisman Trophy following a seismic move in the market in favor of the Washington quarterback.
If you are going to bet Heisman Trophy futures, do it at FanDuel Sportsbook! If you sign up with the link below, you can get $200 in bonus bets INSTANTLY upon signing up and placing a $5 first bet.
2023 Heisman Trophy Odds
Michael Penix Jr. Heisman Trophy Odds
Penix Jr. is second in the country in passing yards with 2,301 and has a 20-3 touchdown-interception ratio while completing 72% of his passes. He has the numbers that support a viable Heisman Trophy claim.
However, this early in the season, I believe that the odds are shaded far to in favor of the left-handed gun slinger.
The Huskies have passed their first true test of the season, and will now push into the second half of the season firmly in play for the College Football Playoff picture.
The team will likely be favored or an underdog of a field goal or less in every remaining game this season. However, the schedule is far from easy.
The team will very likely defeat PAC-12 bottom dwellers Arizona State and Stanford, but then finishes the season with a road trip to USC, a home game against Utah, a road game at Oregon State and a home regular season finale against Washington State.
To me, if Penix Jr. and the Huskies lose one game, he is likely to fall out of contention as the odds of Washington remaining in the College Football Playoff picture becomes doubtful. Even with gaudy stats, team success is a massive driver of this award.
J.J. McCarthy Heisman Trophy Odds
So, who can chase down Penix Jr.? There are plenty of impressive quarterbacks this season, but the quarterback of the best team in the country had his odds drop in a big way on Saturday and that's J.J. McCarthy, who is tied for the second choice with Oklahoma's Dillon Gabriel.
McCarthy doesn't have the eye-popping statistics that Penix Jr. has, but some of that is by design. McCarthy and the Wolverines have been destroying every team in its path to a 6-0 start to the season. The lopsided score differential for the Wolverines is so staggering that McCarthy has only thrown four passes in the fourth quarter this season!
The sophomore is the eptimore of efficiency. He is completing 78% of his passes with more than 13 yards per completion. Michigan is top 10 in key statistics like EPA/Play and success rate, anchored by McCarthy's incredible play.
So, why would he get the nod over someone like Penix Jr., who is running away with the statistical case? It goes back to the team success part of the equation. Michigan has been the best team in college football this season and will get a chance late in the season to secure wins over College Football Playoff contenders like at Penn State and Ohio State.
Of course, Michigan can lose those games and this can be the chalk's award to lose, but let's reengineer the facts.
Penix Jr. became the odds on favorite to win the award based around the team's marquee win against a CFP level team in Oregon. The result drove the odds move. Won't the same happen if Michigan wins at Penn State in a few weeks and caps the season off with a home win against Ohio State?
The big move has happened for Penix Jr., don't be caught buying the short number now that the market has moved. This conversation is ongoing and far from a sure thing for the Washington signal caller.
I'd continue to find longer prices on someone like McCarthy to make a late push for the award.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!