Here's Who KenPom Predicts to win Every Remaining Conference Tournament
By Ben Heisler
Nearly a dozen more men's conference tournaments kick off this week as more and more automatic bids are handed out for the upcoming NCAA Tournament.
With every tournament available for futures bets currently at WynnBET Sportsbook, what are the best ways to find mispriced in the field?
Fortunately, longtime college basketball data analyst Ken Pomeroy posted all of his projections for the upcoming conference tourneys, breaking each team down by their projected chances to advance in each round of the tournament.
Let's go through them relative to their posted futures odds and see if we can find some value on the board.
Who does KenPom Project to win the ACC Tournament?
The top-seeded Duke Blue Devils are the overwhelming favorite in the latest KenPom projections, coming in at 48.6%. Despite the Blue Devils starting the tournament at -125 to win, their implied probability based on those odds calculated by WynnBET is actually 55.56%, making their minus-odds fairly reasonable.
The only other potential value play is Notre Dame purely based on the bracket. The Irish are +950 to win the ACC Tournament and would have to likely beat UNC, a team they beat already this year to move on to face Duke.
Who Does KenPom Project to win the A-10 Tournament?
Dayton is both the favorite on the board at WynnBET (+260) as well as at KenPom to cut down the nets in Washington D.C.
No real value currently exists, with the oddsmakers and the projections lining up awfully close to each other, although Dayton's implied probability to win calculates to 40.82%, so perhaps a play on the favorite is a good way to go.
Who Does KenPom Project to win the AAC Tournament?
The Cougars, fresh off their loss to Memphis in the AAC regular-season finale are -190 to win the AAC Tournament at WynnBET. Even though their probability to win is right around 65%, grabbing Houston at nearly 1-2 odds doesn't feel like an opportunistic play.
SMU at +800 actually lines up perfectly with the KenPom projections, and was even teased as a possible dark horse pick out of the AAC by BetSided's Reed Wallach.
Who Does KenPom Project to win the Big 12 Tournament?
Baylor actually comes out ahead of KU on the odds board, with the Bears at +195 and the Jayhawks at +215. Kansas does have a slight edge in the projections both to win the Big 12, as well as to make it to the championship game, but nothing is eye-popping about it.
Neither team comes out much ahead of behind their projections, but Texas Tech at +350 odds may be a good value, especially if they end up facing No. 4 Texas in the finale. The Red Raiders have beaten the Longhorns both times they've faced each other as Chris Beard is 0-2 vs. his former squad.
Who does KenPom Project to win the Big East Tournament?
Another big favorite is on the board! The Wildcats are +150 to win the Big East, but have a projected 40% implied probability to win.
One team to be on the lookout for is Marquette, who have seen their odds drop from +900 to +600 over the last few days. The Golden Eagles to win the Big East was discussed by BetSided's Peter Dewey on the latest episode of the "Bet & Breakfast" podcast.
Who does KenPom Project to win the Big Ten Tournament?
The Big Ten, perhaps, offers the most varied set of odds and projections. At WynnBET, No. 3 seeded Purdue is the heavy favorite at +200, followed by No. 1 Illinois (+365), No. 5 Iowa (+365) and Wisconsin (+975).
Earlier on Tuesday, our Iain MacMillan broke down why he's backing Illinois at very solid value this week.
For a team that lost out on the 1-seed on the final day of the regular season, it's fairly stunning to see Wisconsin this low on the board. Then again, the metrics haven't favored them for much of the season, and Johnny Davis has carried the Badgers on his back all year long. He may have to do it again if the Badgers are to cut down the nets in Indy.
Who Does KenPom Project to win the Mountain West Tournament?
The Mountain West was a major topic of conversation during BetSided's latest "best bets" roundtable going over all the major conference tournaments this week, with Peter Dewey making his case for the Wyoming Cowboys in a wide open field.
Turns out the sharps agree, as Wyoming has dropped from +900 down to +775 over at WynnBET, with Boise State (+240), San Diego State (+320) and Colorado State (+340) all slightly ahead.
Don't forget, Wyoming and UNLV square off in the 4-5 matchup on Thursday afternoon, and they happen to play this week's tournament in UNLV's home arena, the Thomas and Mack Center in Las Vegas, so the Cowboys are essentially playing a road game on a "neutral" site.
Who Does KenPom Project to win the PAC 12 Tournament?
It may not be an exciting pick, but Arizona comes in as -135 favorites in a Pac 12 that should see them breeze through to the championship game, perhaps being double-digit favorites in most of their matchups. Reed Wallach alluded to this schedule earlier on Tuesday
After UCLA at +255 odds, the oddsmakers aren't giving anyone else much of a shot. USC is third on the list at +1000, followed by Oregon at 18/1.
Personally, I think the Bruins are more than capable of knocking out the Wildcats, ranking top 15 and 11th in the nation in KenPom adjusted offense and defense this year. They'd be my pick to come out of the Pac 12 with Arizona all but assured of a No. 1 seed.
Who does KenPom Project to win the SEC Tournament?
Not much of a surprise to see Kentucky (+185) as the 3-seed favored to win the SEC Tournament as the Wildcats have been in the top 3 of National Championship odds for much of the season behind Gonzaga and Arizona.
Auburn, the top seed in the tourney comes in at +250, followed by Tennessee (+365) and Arkansas at +675.
The oddsmakers give the Razorbacks a slightly higher implied probability to win at just under 13% compared to the KenPom projections, and if they can beat Auburn for a second time this year, they're certainly capable of making it to the championship game against likely Kentucky or Tennessee. The Razorbacks have only lost two games since January 12th, both by four points or less on the road vs. Alabama and Tennessee.
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