Here's Why You Should Bet on the Raiders to Win Super Bowl 56

Derek Carr and the Las Vegas Raiders are coming off a big win against the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
Derek Carr and the Las Vegas Raiders are coming off a big win against the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving. / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Want a long shot Super Bowl bet? Let's get crazy.

WynnBET currently has the Las Vegas Raiders set at +15000 (150/1) to win Super Bowl 56, and I'm here to tell you that it's actually a good bet (at that price). If you bet $5 on it, and they somehow pull it off, you'd profit a cool $750.

Now, I'm not throwing out this Super Bowl bet for no reason, I have ways to justify it. In fact, I placed the bet myself on Wednesday night.

Why the Raiders Are a Good Value Bet to Win Super Bowl 56

I'm a big stats guy, and if you're a big stats person too, there's a lot to love about the Raiders. I got into it a little bit on Thursday's episode of the Bet and Breakfast podcast.

Let's look at Net Yards per Play, which is the statistic you get when you take the average amount of yards a team gains on offense, and subtract the amount of yards they give up per play on defense.

Here are the top five teams in the NFL in net yards per play:

  1. Bills +1.48
  2. Rams +0.95
  3. Buccaneers +0.87
  4. Raiders +0.78
  5. Browns +0.75

Now net yards per play obviously isn't everything, but it's certainly not insignificant. They're right up there with teams who most people consider are legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

Why Are the Raiders only 6-5?

So the next question you probably have is, if the Raiders are such a solid bet to win the Super Bowl, why are they only 6-5?

A big reason for it has been their third down and red zone efficiency. They rank in the bottom five in third down offense and red zone offense, and they rank dead last in red zone defense, allowing teams to find the end zone on 75.86% of red zone trips against them. That cancels out a lot of things they do well in other areas of the game.

Do the Raiders deserve being amongst the Super Bowl favorites? Absolutely not. But at 150/1, there are some promising signs that make them worth a sprinkle.

Let's not forget, if there's ever a year that a sixth or seventh seed can win the Super Bowl, it's this year. No team has emerged as a clear number one contender. If the Raiders can pull it off, you'll look like the smartest person in your group of friends.

Exclusive offer. Bet $1, Win $100 if either team scores a TD. . dark