Historical March Madness Betting Trends To Consider Before Betting This Year's NCAA Tournament
As the NCAA Tournament is just around the corner, it’s normal to have stared at the bracket about a million times at this point. Predicting 63 games and 64 teams is not easy because it’s too difficult to know which teams will show up when the lights are the brightest. While trying to perfect your analysis of each matchup, let’s take a look at some of the historical trends and what we generally have seen during the tournament.
NCAA Tournament Trends for No. 1 seed
For the No. 1 seeds, there have only been a total of two instances where the No. 16 seed has been able to pull off a miracle in the opening round. In 2018, Virginia lost to UMBC 74-54 while last year in 2023, Fairleigh Dickinson (FDU) knocked off Purdue 63-58. Avoid upset picks early with the heavyweight teams because it is so rare for a top seed to struggle off the bat in the tournament. No. 1 seeds have been very successful overall, winning 24 of the previous 38 national championships (63.2 percent of the time) and more recently, 12 of the prior 16 title games.
Last season was an outlier in this category, as not a single No. 1 seed was able to reach the Final Four. This year, these are very strong programs on the top line and I can’t envision another tournament without one. Here are the national championship odds below.
The Coveted 12-5 Upset
The 12-5 matchups have drawn a lot of attention over the years from the public. It’s a rather common upset pick, and this time around it may be a great opportunity to ride with the 12 seeds. Last year, those teams went 0-4 ATS and straight up. This certainly helped to spoil brackets as it is one of the most popular upset picks each year in the tournament.
The 12-seed teams have gone 53-99 since the tournament expansion in 1985 (34.8 percent), but it’s deceiving. Last year marked the first time since 2018 that a No. 12 was unable to win a first-round game. The No. 12 seeds went 3-1 straight up in 2013, 2016, and 2019. This year’s matchups are exciting, with the point spread next to the favorite team.
No. 12 McNeese vs. No. 5 Gonzaga
No. 12 UAB vs. No. 5 San Diego State
No. 12 James Madison vs. No. 5 Wisconsin
No. 12 Grand Canyon vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s
Trust the Veterans
It cannot be stressed enough that one of the critical key ingredients in college basketball is consistency. The best way to get that in a team is most likely due to veteran leadership. Any time a roster full of seniors and graduate students shows up, consider backing that team to advance in the tournament. Most players who attend smaller programs usually stick together for their entire college career and can build chemistry with each other. Remember, these are student-athletes, not professionals. Experience is always a great way to gain an edge against the rest of the competition.
Bet on Teams from the East
This is your annual reminder that no team west of Texas has won the national championship since 1997. In that time frame, some teams have claimed multiple championships. UConn has the most titles (5), followed by Duke (3), North Carolina (3), Florida (2), Kentucky (2), Kansas (2) and Villanova (2). Incredibly, this east trend is still holding strong with so many Division I teams getting an opportunity.
Gonzaga was among the most recent teams that nearly broke this trend twice when they made their national championship runs, losing to North Carolina (2017) and Baylor (2021). San Diego State also made the title game against UConn last season. Here are the shortest odds to win the national championship among the western opponents.
Trust Yourself
As everyone gets ready to watch the madness unfold over the coming days, the most simple advice is to not overthink the bracket (even though you probably already have). There’s a one in 9.2 quintillion chance of being perfect the whole way and with some of the matchups, it is practically a 50-50 split on the best pick. Stick with a team and be confident in the pick. The best part is that if you nail a huge upset correctly, you can brag to everyone you know about it! Good luck and most importantly, have fun!
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.