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Historical Trend Favors Avalanche to Win Stanley Cup Final Over Lightning Following Game 1 Victory

By Ben Heisler

Colorado Avalanche left wing Andre Burakovsky (95) is mobbed by his teammates after scoring the game-winning goal in overtime in Game 1.
Colorado Avalanche left wing Andre Burakovsky (95) is mobbed by his teammates after scoring the game-winning goal in overtime in Game 1. / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
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We should have listened to our writers.

Much to the chagrin of the BetSided editors, who were all on the Lightning moneyline, BetSided's Joe Summers and Matt De Saro were on the right side of Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final in Denver; choosing the favorite Avalanche to come up with the home win.

The victory moved the Avalanche to -270 at WynnBET Sportsbook to win the series, as the underdog Lightning moved to +220 odds as an underdog to come back and win four of the next possible six games.

I chose the Lightning to win the series before the pick dropped in Game 1, and while BetSided's Iain MacMillan made a great case earlier today on why now is the ultimate opportunity to jump on board with Tampa Bay, there's another trend that doesn't bode well for the Lightning's chances moving forward.

Via ESPN Stats and Information, Game 1 winners in the Stanley Cup Final have had an enormous amount of success in taking home the Cup over the last 80-plus years.

Since the late 1930s, when the final series became a best-of-seven, Game 1 winners are 62-20 in the series since 1939; winning the Stanley Cup Final just under 76% of the time.

The oddsmakers at WynnBET seem to take that stat into consideration as well; hanging the Avalanche at not just -270 to win three more games, but also at -155 odds to win Game 2.

The Avalanche also proved on Wednesday night that any sort of rust from a week-plus off isn't anything to be concerned about. BetSided's Reed Wallach discovered earlier this week that teams are just 11-13 in the next round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs following a sweep of their opponent from a previous round.

Should the Lightning come back and win Game 2, they would even the series as a current +135 underdog on the board. Tampa Bay is 16-1 in their last 17 games following a loss in the playoffs, going back to 2020 when they won their first of back-to-back Stanley Cups.

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